717
FXUS64 KJAN 122013
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
313 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Tonight through the weekend: Heat will be the primary concern
through most of the forecast period, but we`ll also be monitoring
for the potential for thunderstorms as we end the week and go into
the weekend.

Concerning the heat this week: Global model guidance generally
agree that a subtropical high will remain centered over our region
this week. The rather stagnant airmass will heat up beneath the
high and raise heat stress levels. A heat advisory has been issued
for Tuesday, and subsequent heat advisories are likely for the
Wed through Sat period. There is some uncertainty with just how
moist the surface air will be given how dry the weather has been
(e.g., no measurable rain at JAN since July 26th). If current NWP
guidance are not overdone with surface dewpoint forecasts, then
it`s possible we`ll need to consider excessive heat warnings for
western to southern portions of the area late this week.

Concerning the storm potential late this week into weekend: This
portion of the forecast has less confidence due to greater
guidance variability with a strong shortwave trough forecast to
cross the nation and eventually help carve out a larger trough
over the eastern CONUS. Depending on how much this trough can dig
through the MS Valley region, we may see significant height falls
and stronger northwest flow that could support organized storms
with perhaps some severe weather potential. At least one mesoscale
convective system could affect mainly eastern portions of the
area in the Fri to Sun time frame. The greater risk for an MCS
appears to be Saturday, but would recommend just monitoring the
potential for now. In the least, increasing instability should
allow for greater coverage of diurnally driven storms during the
late week to weekend. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

VFR conditions and light surface wind will prevail through the
forecast period. There is low probability for a few patchy areas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  98  76  99 /  10  10   0  20
Meridian      73  98  73  99 /   0  10   0  20
Vicksburg     75  98  76 100 /  10  10   0  10
Hattiesburg   75  99  76 100 /  10  10   0  20
Natchez       75  98  75  99 /  10  10   0  10
Greenville    73  97  76  98 /   0  10   0  10
Greenwood     74  98  76  97 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ018-034-040-
     041-047-048-053-054-059>064-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

CR/EC