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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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717 FXUS64 KJAN 122013 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 313 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Tonight through the weekend: Heat will be the primary concern through most of the forecast period, but we`ll also be monitoring for the potential for thunderstorms as we end the week and go into the weekend. Concerning the heat this week: Global model guidance generally agree that a subtropical high will remain centered over our region this week. The rather stagnant airmass will heat up beneath the high and raise heat stress levels. A heat advisory has been issued for Tuesday, and subsequent heat advisories are likely for the Wed through Sat period. There is some uncertainty with just how moist the surface air will be given how dry the weather has been (e.g., no measurable rain at JAN since July 26th). If current NWP guidance are not overdone with surface dewpoint forecasts, then it`s possible we`ll need to consider excessive heat warnings for western to southern portions of the area late this week. Concerning the storm potential late this week into weekend: This portion of the forecast has less confidence due to greater guidance variability with a strong shortwave trough forecast to cross the nation and eventually help carve out a larger trough over the eastern CONUS. Depending on how much this trough can dig through the MS Valley region, we may see significant height falls and stronger northwest flow that could support organized storms with perhaps some severe weather potential. At least one mesoscale convective system could affect mainly eastern portions of the area in the Fri to Sun time frame. The greater risk for an MCS appears to be Saturday, but would recommend just monitoring the potential for now. In the least, increasing instability should allow for greater coverage of diurnally driven storms during the late week to weekend. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 VFR conditions and light surface wind will prevail through the forecast period. There is low probability for a few patchy areas && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 75 98 76 99 / 10 10 0 20 Meridian 73 98 73 99 / 0 10 0 20 Vicksburg 75 98 76 100 / 10 10 0 10 Hattiesburg 75 99 76 100 / 10 10 0 20 Natchez 75 98 75 99 / 10 10 0 10 Greenville 73 97 76 98 / 0 10 0 10 Greenwood 74 98 76 97 / 0 10 0 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ018-034-040- 041-047-048-053-054-059>064-072>074. LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ074-075. && $$ CR/EC