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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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996 FXUS64 KJAN 111726 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1226 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 830 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 No changes needed this update with a fantastic day in store so enjoy it while you can because heat will be making a return this week. Very dry conditions are observed this morning with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, leading to very comfortable conditions. A decaying complex is visible on satellite over Oklahoma and should not maintain into our area, but could bring in some clouds in the northwestern portions. Fire danger is a concern today in light of the dry conditions and will continue to message limited risk in HWO./SAS/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Today and tonight: Temps have dipped into the mid and upper 60s across most of the area overnight. Another seasonably warm and comfortable day is on tap as a relatively dry airmass remains across the region. Decent vertical mixing and some continued dry advection are again expected as we warm up, allowing dewpoints to potentially dip into the 50s in some areas by midday and the early afternoon. The only real weather feature of peripheral interest is a convective complex currently over OK. As this progresses further eastward through the day and into this evening, it is expected to diminish as it encounters greater subsidence within the low level ridge axis. For tonight, with the drier airmass, temps will readily dip into the 60s and lower 70s once again. There is still rather limited concern for fire danger today. Fuel moisture is decreasing but largely remains around seasonal norms for the time being (this could change in coming days with more heat and continued lack of rainfall). Meteorologically, daytime RHs could tease critical thresholds but winds will mainly be light. All in all, increasing caution should be exercised with fires, but this is still quite a marginal threat for now. /DL/ Monday through the weekend... Overall forecast for the long term period remains the same with no major adjustments made. The primary focus for this portion of the long term forecast will be the return of dangerous heat conditions along with high temperatures and associated heat advisories/warnings starting on Monday/Tuesday. Dry conditions will continue Wednesday through Friday as future global guidance highlights a sfc high migrating out of the Southern Plains and merging with a subtropical ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico. Monday through Wednesday Quiet weather conditions will continue to dominate our forecast heading into Monday as a 594dm high will dominate our forecast area and continue to push drier air across the southeast region. This will allow for a dry sfc front to linger through the southern portions of our forecast area with some low end PoP chances (between 12-16%) mainly for areas along and south of the Hwy 84 corridor by early Monday afternoon. With afternoon highs peaking in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints climbing back into the low to mid 60s, heat indices will hover between 100-105F degrees. Similar conditions will occur on Tuesday as dry conditions persist north of I-20 corridor. Afternoon highs will peak into the mid to upper 90s around this timeframe, with a few areas east of I-55 reaching the low 100s. This, combined with dewpoints climbing into the low 70s, will yield heat indices in the 105-110F deg range. If heat trends continue to increase heading into Tuesday, we will likely introduce a heat graphic in our HWO for this timeframe and will continue advertise this graphic heading into the mid week. Likewise, a Heat Advisory is likely for our entire forecast area for Tuesday including portions of southeast Arkansas and all of our northeast Louisiana parishes. Hot and humid Gulf flow will make a return to the forecast region by mid day Wednesday as the aforementioned sfc front lingering across the southern portions of central MS tracks southeast towards the Gulf Coast. This will unfortunately cause temperatures associated with this flow to see a return to our uncomfortable/ sweltering summertime temperatures/heat indices with several areas south of I- 20 climbing above 110F deg. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed heading into Wednesday. There is some discrepancies with model consensus in regards to the precise orientation of this pattern, which in turn, allow for some uncertainty in low PoPs and rain chances for Wednesday afternoon. At the moment, we are looking at chance for scattered showers and storms east of I-55 with low end PoP chances hovering in the 15-25% range. Thursday through Sunday Thursday will see a continuation of hot conditions with areas east of I-55 seeing afternoon temperatures climb in the low 100s with the rest of the area seeing highs in the upper 90s. Heat indices will be similar to Wednesday with isolated areas south of I-20 and across the Delta seeing heat indices above 110F. Heat trends will begin to decrease Friday/Saturday as future guidance hints at continued weakening and reorientation of the 700mb ridge axis. This will allow for mid-level cloud coverage that spills over into the region which could help lower our afternoon highs heading into the weekend. If this scenario comes to fruition, we could see an overall reduction in in heat indices of 3-5F. This decrease should be just enough to help us fall below below heat advisory/warning criteria. With that being said, areas along and east of I-55 will have a slight chance (around 15-30%) for scattered showers and storms. Heading into Sunday, future guidance highlights a building ridge axis across the Northern Plains. At the same time, a positively tilted trough axis will continue its southward propagation towards the southeast CONUS. As this trough axis continues to dig southward, southwesterly moisture flow from the Gulf will help support afternoon scattered showers and t-storms, with the greatest coverage of low PoP chances (around 25%) east of I-55. Although cloud coverage will start to increase slightly, sufficient daytime heating will help afternoon highs peak in the upper 90s, with a couple of areas reaching low 100s. With dewpoints expected to climb in the low to mid 70s around this timeframe, heat indices will once again be in the 105F-110F deg range. Heat trends will continue to be monitored. /CR/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Quiet VFR conditions prevail with mostly clear skies. A few high clouds will move into the northwest, particularly at site GLH and gradually spread southeastward. Winds will prevail from the north, northeast around 5 to 8kts./SAS/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 71 96 74 99 / 0 0 0 10 Meridian 68 96 72 99 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 71 97 75 99 / 0 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 71 98 74 100 / 0 0 0 10 Natchez 72 97 74 98 / 0 0 0 10 Greenville 69 94 73 98 / 10 0 0 10 Greenwood 69 95 73 98 / 0 0 0 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DL/CR/SAS20