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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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435 FXUS64 KJAN 131926 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 226 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Tonight/Wed: Mild and quiet conditions under mostly clear skies are expected tonight. Overnight lows are expected to be in the mid 70s. Patchy fog may be possible in southwestern portion of the area near sunrise on Wednesday. Persistent, high pressure will center over the ArkLaMiss region on Wednesday, leading to another day of high temps in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees across the area. No changes were made to the "Elevated" and "Limited" heat stress HWO graphic. A heat advisory will go into effect at 10am until 8pm. Take precautions to remain cool, stay hydrated, and take frequent breaks if working outdoors. /SW/ Wednesday night through Monday night: Heat and humidity will continue to be the main weather concern through the forecast period. Low chances of mainly diurnal convection will be limited to the eastern half of the CWA where total rainfall amounts through the period are expected to be less than a quarter of an inch. Come Wednesday evening our CWA will still be on the eastern periphery of a large 594dam covering most of the southern tier states. A >1016mb surface ridge will be nosing into our CWA from the northeast. This will initially maintain a slightly drier airmass over our northeast zones but elsewhere, a very moist airmass will lead to high humidity as temperatures climb up into the 90s. This will likely lead to heat index values above 105F and another Heat Advisory will be needed for the remainder of our CWA again. Thursday a closed low over the northern Plains and shifting east toward the Great Lakes region will begin deepening a trough over the central Plains. This deepening trough will try to make a dent in the mid level ridge across our region but ridging both surface and aloft looks to hang tough through Friday. Saturday models suggest a possible mcs along the stalled frontal boundary associated with the closed low system. This possible mcs is expected to drop southeast across northern Mississippi Saturday afternoon. An associated outflow boundary will increase coverage of convection over the eastern half of the CWA and help prolong convection in the north and northeast through the night. Depending on how far into the central portions of our CWA before the boundary stalls, the coverage of heat stress related products will likely need to be trimmed back to the southwest Sunday and Monday. /22/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR flight conditions with light, variable winds near 5 kts will prevail through the TAF period. An isolated shower/thunderstorm will be possible near southern TAF sites during the afternoon/early evening before diminishing. Early Wednesday morning, patchy fog may be possible in southwestern portion of the area. /SW/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 76 99 76 99 / 0 20 10 30 Meridian 74 99 75 98 / 0 20 10 20 Vicksburg 76 99 77 99 / 0 20 10 20 Hattiesburg 76 101 76 98 / 0 20 10 30 Natchez 76 99 76 98 / 0 10 10 10 Greenville 75 97 77 99 / 0 20 10 10 Greenwood 75 97 77 100 / 0 20 10 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025- 034>036-040>043-047>049-053>056-059>066-072>074. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ018-019- 025-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>056-059>066-072>074. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ007>009- 015-016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ074-075. && $$ SW/22/SW