468
FXUS64 KJAN 300554 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Rest of tonight...

The pattern remains unsettled, with continued rain showers and a
few isolated storms shifting northward. Upper air analysis this
evening indicate light northerly flow aloft, with another
shortwave over the Ozarks bringing some convection southeastward.
This is in combination with aftn heat and humidity and deep
moisture (1.8 to 2.2 inch PWs), but coverage will wane into the
overnight hours. Another seasonably warm night is on tap (72-75F).
Fog isn`t expected to be a concern, but can`t be ruled out in
areas that received good rain and low-lying areas, especially in
river valleys. Updates are out. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Today through Tomorrow...

Not much has changed in the forecast for the near term period. The
continuation of this typical summertime airmass combined with
southerly moisture flow from the Gulf will help support diurnally
driven convection across our CWA this afternoon/early evening with a
few strong storms possible. Given PWATs in excess of 2 inches, SPC
HREF ensemble viewer is not really showing a noticeable QPF signal
that would indicate any flash flooding concerns. With that in mind,
the potential for a few isolated heavy downpours will be possible
across eastern MS. Localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out if
these storms are slow moving and train over a low lying urban area.

In addition to the rain chances today, afternoon highs are expected
to reach the low 90s areawide. Given the highs in the low 90s and
dewpoints in the mid 70s, heat index readings will reach 105 degrees
in several areas along and west of I-55. For consistency purposes,
the "Limited" threat for increasing stress will continue to be
advertised.

Rain chances will start to diminish heading into the late evening
hours with a slight chance of a pop-up shower over the metro area.
HREF guidance is starting to show low probabilities (around 10%) for
development of patchy fog for portions of the Pine Belt and for a
few areas north of Hwy 82 tonight through early Monday morning.
Confidence is too low to introduce any fog graphics at this time.
Expect overnight lows to dip into the low 70s across our forecast
area.

Looking ahead into tomorrow, a little better heating and
better moisture flow from the west will result in better heating
across Chicot to Leflore MS and southward into the I-20 corridor
with heat indices between 105-109 degrees. A Heat Advisory has been
introduced for Monday afternoon for the areas mentioned above. Rain
chances will begin to increase across our area tomorrow afternoon
with higher chances for showers and storms across east MS. Areas
along and west of I-55 will see highs in the low 90s. Meanwhile,
areas east of I-55 will see afternoon highs in the upper 80s. /CR/

Monday Night through the Weekend...

Rain chances will begin to dwindle across much of the area heading
into late Monday evening through the overnight period with a slight
chance of showers across portions of east and north MS. Tuesday will
see a uptick in convection coverage as global guidance shows a
frontal boundary across the Tennessee Valley Region start to
propagate southward towards the southeast CONUS. Weather conditions
will begin to become drier heading into the mid week as the boundary
pushes further south across the area.

Upper ridging will start to build over Texas thanks to the
amplifying trough over the northeast CONUS. This will allow for NW
moisture flow over our region. A few subtle disturbances embedded
in the east flank of this NW flow will allow for several strong/
possibly marginal severe storms into the late week. Forecast
adjustments will be made as we get closer. Heat will be the primary
focus again heading into the holiday weekend as the ridge over Texas
pushes off to the east and builds over the southeast region. Future
guidance is starting to show afternoon highs in the mid 90s with a
few spots near the Gulf reaching the upper 90s. This combined with
dewpoints in the low/mid 70s along with humid conditions will likely
result in heat indices between 105-110 degrees. Heat trends will
continue be monitored as we get into the holiday weekend and heat
headlines may eventually be needed as well. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Brief patchy fog or low clouds will be possible through around
daybreak, though confidence is not high enough to prevail at any
TAF site. Scattered mainly afternoon and evening TS are expected,
with brief categorical reductions and gusty wind possible.
Greatest coverage is expected to be east of I-55. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail through the remainder of the TAF period.
/DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  74  90  73 /  50  30  70  20
Meridian      88  72  89  71 /  70  30  80  20
Vicksburg     93  75  91  73 /  30  20  60  20
Hattiesburg   91  74  91  73 /  80  30  80  30
Natchez       91  74  91  73 /  30  20  60  20
Greenville    91  74  89  72 /  30  30  50  10
Greenwood     91  74  90  72 /  50  30  70  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-047-053.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ008-009-016-025.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DC/CR/DL