![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
543 FXUS64 KJAN 130552 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1252 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Tonight through the weekend: Heat will be the primary concern through most of the forecast period, but we`ll also be monitoring for the potential for thunderstorms as we end the week and go into the weekend. Concerning the heat this week: Global model guidance generally agree that a subtropical high will remain centered over our region this week. The rather stagnant airmass will heat up beneath the high and raise heat stress levels. A heat advisory has been issued for Tuesday, and subsequent heat advisories are likely for the Wed through Sat period. There is some uncertainty with just how moist the surface air will be given how dry the weather has been (e.g., no measurable rain at JAN since July 26th). If current NWP guidance are not overdone with surface dewpoint forecasts, then it`s possible we`ll need to consider excessive heat warnings for western to southern portions of the area late this week. Concerning the storm potential late this week into weekend: This portion of the forecast has less confidence due to greater guidance variability with a strong shortwave trough forecast to cross the nation and eventually help carve out a larger trough over the eastern CONUS. Depending on how much this trough can dig through the MS Valley region, we may see significant height falls and stronger northwest flow that could support organized storms with perhaps some severe weather potential. At least one mesoscale convective system could affect mainly eastern portions of the area in the Fri to Sun time frame. The greater risk for an MCS appears to be Saturday, but would recommend just monitoring the potential for now. In the least, increasing instability should allow for greater coverage of diurnally driven storms during the late week to weekend. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR flight categories & light & variable winds, northerly at times & less than 10mph, will prevail at the TAF sites through the period. Winds may be more variable in southern Mississippi where a sea breeze could turn winds out of the south Tuesday. /DC/NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 99 76 99 76 / 10 0 20 10 Meridian 99 73 99 74 / 10 0 20 10 Vicksburg 99 76 100 77 / 10 0 10 10 Hattiesburg 99 76 100 76 / 10 0 20 10 Natchez 98 75 99 76 / 10 0 10 0 Greenville 97 76 98 76 / 10 0 10 10 Greenwood 98 76 97 76 / 10 0 20 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-034-040-041-047-048-053-054-059>064-072>074. LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ EC/DC/NF