543
FXUS64 KJAN 130552 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1252 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Tonight through the weekend: Heat will be the primary concern
through most of the forecast period, but we`ll also be monitoring
for the potential for thunderstorms as we end the week and go into
the weekend.

Concerning the heat this week: Global model guidance generally
agree that a subtropical high will remain centered over our region
this week. The rather stagnant airmass will heat up beneath the
high and raise heat stress levels. A heat advisory has been issued
for Tuesday, and subsequent heat advisories are likely for the
Wed through Sat period. There is some uncertainty with just how
moist the surface air will be given how dry the weather has been
(e.g., no measurable rain at JAN since July 26th). If current NWP
guidance are not overdone with surface dewpoint forecasts, then
it`s possible we`ll need to consider excessive heat warnings for
western to southern portions of the area late this week.

Concerning the storm potential late this week into weekend: This
portion of the forecast has less confidence due to greater
guidance variability with a strong shortwave trough forecast to
cross the nation and eventually help carve out a larger trough
over the eastern CONUS. Depending on how much this trough can dig
through the MS Valley region, we may see significant height falls
and stronger northwest flow that could support organized storms
with perhaps some severe weather potential. At least one mesoscale
convective system could affect mainly eastern portions of the
area in the Fri to Sun time frame. The greater risk for an MCS
appears to be Saturday, but would recommend just monitoring the
potential for now. In the least, increasing instability should
allow for greater coverage of diurnally driven storms during the
late week to weekend. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

VFR flight categories & light & variable winds, northerly at
times & less than 10mph, will prevail at the TAF sites through
the period. Winds may be more variable in southern Mississippi
where a sea breeze could turn winds out of the south
Tuesday. /DC/NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       99  76  99  76 /  10   0  20  10
Meridian      99  73  99  74 /  10   0  20  10
Vicksburg     99  76 100  77 /  10   0  10  10
Hattiesburg   99  76 100  76 /  10   0  20  10
Natchez       98  75  99  76 /  10   0  10   0
Greenville    97  76  98  76 /  10   0  10  10
Greenwood     98  76  97  76 /  10   0  20  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ018-034-040-041-047-048-053-054-059>064-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

EC/DC/NF