926
FXUS64 KJAN 140324
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1024 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

After a hot day with highs in the upper 90s to near 100, a quiet
weather night is underway with a nice drop in temperatures taking
place so far this evening. Have lowered overnight lows just a bit,
but overall the forecast is on track and no significant
adjustments were needed for the evening near term update. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Tonight/Wed: Mild and quiet conditions under mostly clear skies
are expected tonight. Overnight lows are expected to be in the mid
70s. Patchy fog may be possible in southwestern portion of the
area near sunrise on Wednesday.

Persistent, high pressure will center over the ArkLaMiss region on
Wednesday, leading to another day of high temps in the upper 90s to
near 100 degrees across the area. No changes were made to the
"Elevated" and "Limited" heat stress HWO graphic. A heat advisory
will go into effect at 10am until 8pm. Take precautions to remain
cool, stay hydrated, and take frequent breaks if working outdoors.
/SW/

Wednesday night through Monday night: Heat and humidity will
continue to be the main weather concern through the forecast period.
Low chances of mainly diurnal convection will be limited to the
eastern half of the CWA where total rainfall amounts through the
period are expected to be less than a quarter of an inch.

Come Wednesday evening our CWA will still be on the eastern
periphery of a large 594dam covering most of the southern tier
states. A >1016mb surface ridge will be nosing into our CWA from the
northeast. This will initially maintain a slightly drier airmass
over our northeast zones but elsewhere, a very moist airmass will
lead to high humidity as temperatures climb up into the 90s. This
will likely lead to heat index values above 105F and another Heat
Advisory will be needed for the remainder of our CWA again. Thursday
a closed low over the northern Plains and shifting east toward the
Great Lakes region will begin deepening a trough over the central
Plains. This deepening trough will try to make a dent in the mid
level ridge across our region but ridging both surface and aloft
looks to hang tough through Friday. Saturday models suggest a
possible mcs along the stalled frontal boundary associated with the
closed low system. This possible mcs is expected to drop southeast
across northern Mississippi Saturday afternoon. An associated
outflow boundary will increase coverage of convection over the
eastern half of the CWA and help prolong convection in the north and
northeast through the night. Depending on how far into the central
portions of our CWA before the boundary stalls, the coverage of heat
stress related products will likely need to be trimmed back to the
southwest Sunday and Monday. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

VFR conditions and light surface wind will prevail through the
forecast period. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       76  99  76  99 /   0  20  10  30
Meridian      74  99  75  98 /   0  20  10  20
Vicksburg     76  99  77  99 /   0  20  10  20
Hattiesburg   76 101  76  98 /   0  20  10  30
Natchez       76  99  76  98 /   0  10  10  10
Greenville    75  97  77  99 /   0  20  10  10
Greenwood     75  97  77 100 /   0  20  10  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ018-019-
     025-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>056-059>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ007>009-
     015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

SW/22/EC