![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
520 FXUS64 KJAN 141008 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 508 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 508 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Today and Tonight... Early morning model guidance highlights a persistent high pressure system over the ArkLaMiss region today. This will unfortunately lead to another day of afternoon highs in the upper 90s across our CWA with a few areas reaching 100 degrees. A heat advisory remains in effect from 10 AM this morning until 8 PM this evening. No changes have been made to the heat graphic for today and an "Elevated" risk for dangerous heat has been maintained, especially for areas where the heat advisory is in effect. Scattered showers along with a few popup t-storms cannot be ruled later this afternoon, especially for areas along and east of I-55, as clouds begin to build from the north. Heading into tonight, a few lingering showers could occur across the Pine Belt as clouds continue to build from the north. Nighttime temperatures will drop in the mid to upper 70s across our forecast area. Thursday through Wednesday... Dangerous heat conditions continues to be the primary focus for the extended period with no major adjustments made to the overall forecast. There still remains secondary challenge regarding rain/storm coverage and timing later in the week which will be discussed further down below. Thursday will see a continuation of hot conditions with areas east of I-55 seeing afternoon temperatures climb in the low 100s with the rest of the area seeing highs in the upper 90s. Heat indices will be slightly higher compared to Wednesday. Additional heat advisories will likely be needed and several heat warnings may be needed heading into the late week with concerns for significant heat stress increasing as well. With that being said, areas along and east of I- 55 could have a slight chance (around 20-45%) for scattered showers and storms. Moving along into the late week and into the weekend, Friday through Sunday could have the best coverage of diurnally driven storms especially for eastern portions of the area. Forecast confidence has started to increase slightly as both the GFS and the Euro are starting to have better alignment with each other in regards to the timing and strength of the trough. The timing between these two models has gotten better and it appears that the faster scenario discussed in previous discussions appears more likely. Friday- Saturday timeframe appears to be the best chance of seeing marginal severe weather along with a possible mcs. As this trough continues to dig southward, a frontal boundary will track south towards our CWA. The aforementioned boundary will help initiate afternoon scattered showers and t-storms, with the greatest coverage of low to mid PoP chances (between 35-45%) east of I-55. Although cloud coverage will start to increase slightly, sufficient daytime heating will help afternoon highs peak in the upper 90s, with a couple of areas west of the MS River reaching low 100s. With dewpoints expected to climb in the low to mid 70s around this timeframe, heat indices will once again be near 105F-110F deg. Should start to see a downward trend in heat indices Sunday and especially on Monday to start the new work week. Can`t rule out an isolated shower or popup storm around this timeframe, especially for areas across southeast MS. Similar conditions could occur on Tuesday as future guidance hints at the weak front shifting further south towards the Pine Belt. Leading into Wednesday, weather conditions should remain quiet across our CWA as a high pressure system builds across the Tennessee Valley. /CR/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR flight categories & light & variable winds, less than 10mph, will prevail through the period. Some SHRA & isolated TSRA can`t be ruled out across from 13/20Z through 14/00Z. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 99 77 100 78 / 20 10 40 10 Meridian 98 74 98 75 / 30 10 30 10 Vicksburg 99 77 99 77 / 20 10 20 10 Hattiesburg 100 76 100 77 / 30 20 50 10 Natchez 99 77 98 76 / 20 10 20 10 Greenville 96 77 99 77 / 20 10 10 10 Greenwood 97 76 100 78 / 20 10 20 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>056-059>066- 072>074. LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ CR/DC