Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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520
FXUS64 KJAN 141008
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
508 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 508 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Today and Tonight...

Early morning model guidance highlights a persistent high pressure
system over the ArkLaMiss region today. This will unfortunately lead
to another day of afternoon highs in the upper 90s across our CWA
with a few areas reaching 100 degrees. A heat advisory remains in
effect from 10 AM this morning until 8 PM this evening. No changes
have been made to the heat graphic for today and an "Elevated" risk
for dangerous heat has been maintained, especially for areas where
the heat advisory is in effect. Scattered showers along with a few
popup t-storms  cannot be ruled later this afternoon, especially for
areas along and east of I-55, as clouds begin to build from the
north. Heading into tonight, a few lingering showers could occur
across the Pine Belt as clouds continue to build from the north.
Nighttime temperatures will drop in the mid to upper 70s across our
forecast area.

Thursday through Wednesday...

Dangerous heat conditions continues to be the primary focus for the
extended period with no major adjustments made to the overall
forecast. There still remains secondary challenge regarding
rain/storm coverage and timing later in the week which will be
discussed further down below.

Thursday will see a continuation of hot conditions with areas east
of I-55 seeing afternoon temperatures climb in the low 100s with the
rest of the area seeing highs in the upper 90s. Heat indices will be
slightly higher compared to Wednesday. Additional heat advisories
will likely be needed and several heat warnings may be needed
heading into the late week with concerns for significant heat stress
increasing as well. With that being said, areas along and east of I-
55 could have a slight chance (around 20-45%) for scattered showers
and storms.

Moving along into the late week and into the weekend, Friday through
Sunday could have the best coverage of diurnally driven storms
especially for eastern portions of the area. Forecast confidence has
started to increase slightly as both the GFS and the Euro are
starting to have better alignment with each other in regards to the
timing and strength of the trough. The timing between these two
models has gotten better and it appears that the faster scenario
discussed in previous discussions appears more likely. Friday-
Saturday timeframe appears to be the best chance of seeing marginal
severe weather along with a possible mcs. As this trough continues
to dig southward, a frontal boundary will track south towards our
CWA. The aforementioned boundary will help initiate afternoon
scattered showers and t-storms, with the greatest coverage of low to
mid PoP chances (between 35-45%) east of I-55. Although cloud
coverage will start to increase slightly, sufficient daytime heating
will help afternoon highs peak in the upper 90s, with a couple of
areas west of the MS River reaching low 100s. With dewpoints
expected to climb in the low to mid 70s around this timeframe, heat
indices will once again be near 105F-110F deg. Should start to see a
downward trend in heat indices Sunday and especially on Monday to
start the new work week. Can`t rule out an isolated shower or popup
storm around this timeframe, especially for areas across southeast
MS. Similar conditions could occur on Tuesday as future guidance
hints at the weak front shifting further south towards the Pine
Belt. Leading into Wednesday, weather conditions should remain quiet
across our CWA as a high pressure system builds across the Tennessee
Valley. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR flight categories & light & variable winds, less than 10mph,
will prevail through the period. Some SHRA & isolated TSRA can`t
be ruled out across from 13/20Z through 14/00Z. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       99  77 100  78 /  20  10  40  10
Meridian      98  74  98  75 /  30  10  30  10
Vicksburg     99  77  99  77 /  20  10  20  10
Hattiesburg  100  76 100  77 /  30  20  50  10
Natchez       99  77  98  76 /  20  10  20  10
Greenville    96  77  99  77 /  20  10  10  10
Greenwood     97  76 100  78 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ018-019-025-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>056-059>066-
     072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

CR/DC