![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
619 FXUS64 KJAN 151000 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 500 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 500 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Through the End of This Week: Heat and Humidity. Hard to say it is good for much, but in this case the increased humidity is at least enough to bring rain chances to our forecast area. That`s a positive for sure. The disturbance which moved south across the area yesterday is still in the region and may provide some enhanced rain chances farther south toward the Gulf Coast this afternoon and evening. A pool of 2.0+ PW air will be located south of Interstate 20 today, but even the drier air farther north should still have enough moisture (PW > 1.6-1.7) today to support some isolated showers or storms. The influence of the ridge aloft will be felt as temperatures climb into the mid and upper 90s before most shower or storm activity gets going. Forecast soundings show possibility of greater than 2000-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE and around 1000 J/kg of DCAPE, so some strong storms with gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Given the observed heat index values yesterday and the forecast for today/tomorrow/Saturday, felt it was reasonable to upgrade the western and southern portions of the forecast area to an Excessive Heat Warning and advertise "Extreme" dangerous heat impacts on the local HWO graphics to account for multi-day threat of 110+ heat indices especially west of Interstate 55 and down into the Pine Belt. Pop up showers or storms may provide some localized relief, but it appears we are in for a multi-day heat wave with the ridge centered to our west bringing the heat and surface ridging centered to our east keeping the humidity in place. A low pressure system pivoting over the Great Lakes will nudge a cold front toward the Mid-South/Interstate 40 corridor by Saturday afternoon, with increased jet stream winds accompanying the front southward. The increased flow and wind shear is expected to support severe storm development in the vicinity of the front Friday into Saturday, with storms then possibly moving southward into better instability either day. There is a Marginal Risk for organized severe storms Friday afternoon into evening for far northern parts of our area, and then across more of the CWA by Saturday afternoon and evening as the front moves into the area. Sunday into Next Week: Model guidance shows the front to get a better push southward toward the Gulf Coast Sunday into Monday. Main differences behind the front will be drier air and slightly cooler mornings (upper 60s vs mid 70s). Afternoons will feel cooler too, though mainly because of the lost humidity. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 105 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 VFR conditions will prevail across the entire forecast area through 12Z Thursday with a some scattered SHRA/TSRA possible across the Pine Belt. Rain chances should start to increase across much of the area later this afternoon starting around 18Z Thursday with the best chance south of I-20. Rain chances will start to decrease starting around 0Z Friday with VFR ceilings and light winds prevailing. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 97 76 97 77 / 30 20 50 10 Meridian 98 75 97 74 / 30 10 50 10 Vicksburg 98 77 97 77 / 30 20 30 10 Hattiesburg 97 76 96 75 / 40 20 50 10 Natchez 98 76 96 75 / 40 20 30 10 Greenville 98 77 99 77 / 20 10 20 10 Greenwood 98 77 99 77 / 20 10 30 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-040>043-047>049- 053>055-059>064-072>074. Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ028>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-065-066. LA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ NF/CR