821
FXUS64 KJAN 020057 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
757 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 736 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

The remains of the afternoon convection continues to affect
portions of our area. A squall line which developed from the main
cluster has broken up, and scattered showers and thunderstorms
extend along a line from around Hattiesburg, MS back towards
Bastrop, LA. A few isolated storms are north of the combined cold
pool in northern Mississippi, and light rain from the anvil
blowoff is trailing across central and eastern Mississippi. Bumped
up POPs to make sure a slight chance for showers and storms
continued through around 9 PM this evening. Otherwise expect
weather to quiet down overnight. A weak frontal boundary pushing
into the region and northwest flow aloft will usher in drier air
for our region. PWAT values for the northeastern 2/3rds of our CWA
tomorrow afternoon should be 1.5 inches or below. Slight chance to
chance POPs remain mainly in the US Highway 84 corridor for
tomorrow afternoon. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Rest of the Afternoon into Tonight...A trough passing to our north
will continue pushing a frontal boundary south and into the forecast
area through Wednesday morning. This will continue to aid in
sparking showers and storms across the forecast area through the
remainder of this afternoon into the overnight hours. With the
unstable airmass over the CWA, coupled with some extra forcing along
the front and deep-layer shear around 30 knots, the potential for
isolated severe storms will continue into this evening. Damaging
wind gusts will be the primary concern with such storms, with
frequent lightning and heavy downpours likely. With the loss of
daytime heating, convection is forecast to wane in both coverage and
intensity as we approach midnight, but some isolated showers and
storms can`t be ruled out overnight as the front continues its
southward trek.  Otherwise, look for another mild night, despite
some slightly drier air beginning to advect into the region in the
wake of the front, as lows fall into the low and middle 70s. /19/

Wednesday through next Tuesday... The passage of a frontal
boundary tonight will usher in a period of persistent dry weather
through the end of the week. A drier airmass will settle over the
region as northwesterly flow aloft prevails, allowing temperatures
to reach the mid 90s by Friday. Rain chances will remain
extremely low, with only isolated precip possible, primarily
across the southern portions of the CWA, where probabilities
remain less than 10%. By Saturday, moisture looks to begin to
increase again, increasing the possibility for heat stress
conditions. Additionally, chances for diurnal convection will
gradually increase heading into early next workweek./KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 736 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Earlier SHRA and TSRA will continue to decrease in coverage in the
first few hours of the TAF period. Winds will remain variable, but
a weak front moving into our area may turn some winds out of the
north before 12Z Wednesday. Patchy BR cannot be ruled out
overnight - especially in the wake of this eveing`s rainfall - but
confidence at any particular site was too low to mention any
visibility restrictions in the TAFs at this time. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  91  70  91 /  40  10   0   0
Meridian      71  91  69  92 /  50  10   0   0
Vicksburg     74  92  72  92 /  30   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   73  94  72  95 /  40  20   0   0
Natchez       73  91  72  92 /  30  10   0  10
Greenville    72  91  71  91 /  20   0   0   0
Greenwood     71  92  70  92 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

KP/NF