560
FXUS64 KJAN 150243
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
943 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

A bit of an expected weather event this afternoon with a minor
shortwave perturbation moving along an amplified and more
retrograded ridge axis than previously expected. Preceding this
shortwave we had 850mb dew points of about 16C throughout much of
central MS giving us the needed moisture in conjunction with the
lift from the shortwave. Expect afternoons similar to today`s
through at least the next few days, with isolated areas of
convection and associated thunderstorm gusts.

That being said, focusing on overnight tonight into the early
morning hours we will see very stable conditions throughout, so
there should be no more surprises. Winds will calm and southerly
making way for lows in the mid to upper 70s. Unfortunately afternoon
showers brought us plenty of soil/surface based moisture so we will
see RHs rebound into the 95% range across the area tonight, making
for oppressively humid conditions./OAJ/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Tonight/Thurs: Lingering, afternoon showers/isolated t-storms are
expected to diminish as the evening progress, leading to another
mild overnight for the ArkLaMiss region. Overnight lows are
expected to range from the low 70s in the eastern CWA to upper 70s
in the western CWA.

Thursday will bring yet another hot and humid day to the ArkLaMiss
region. The persistent ridge continues to keep afternoon temps in
the upper 90s to near the century mark in the western CWA. Scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms will be possible with afternoon
heating across the area. HWO graphics was updated to include the
rest of the northeastern CWA in a "Limited" heat risk. Otherwise,
previous "Elevated" and "Limited" risk areas remain the same. Heat
Advisory will be in effect from 10AM until 8PM Thursday for
southeast AR, northeast LA, northwest, central, south central,
southeast, and portion of eastern MS. /SW/

Thursday night through Tuesday: Heat and humidity will continue to
be the main weather concern through the weekend before relief moves
in from the northeast Monday. Low chances of mainly diurnal
convection will be limited to the eastern half of the CWA where
total rainfall amounts through the period are expected to be less
than a quarter of an inch.

Come Thursday evening our CWA will still be on the eastern periphery
of a large 594dam covering most of the southern tier states. A
>1016mb surface ridge will be nosing into our CWA from the
northeast. The light return flow around this surface may help
prolong Wednesday afternoon convection in our southern most
counties into early evening but the chance for rain will remain low.

Also Thursday night into Friday a closed low will be shifting east
from the northern Plains and across the Great Lakes region,
deepening a trough just to our north. This deepening trough will try
to make a dent in the mid level ridge across our region but ridging
both surface and aloft looks to hang tough through Friday. There is
a low chance that some of the convection to our north Friday
afternoon may dive into our northeast most zones and produce strong
gusty winds. Saturday models suggest a possible mcs along the
stalled frontal boundary associated with the closed low system. This
possible mcs is expected to drop southeast across northern
Mississippi Saturday afternoon. An associated outflow boundary will
increase coverage of convection over the eastern half of the CWA and
help prolong convection in the north and northeast through the
night. Depending on how far into the central portions of our CWA
before the boundary stalls, the coverage of heat stress related
products will likely need to be trimmed back to the southwest Sunday
and Monday. This should result in slightly cooler and drier
conditions across our CWA Tuesday. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

SHRA/TSRA currently moving through the lower Pine Belt region will
continue to shift south with an outflow boundary and diminish as
we go through the evening. Otherwise, aside from brief vsby
reductions due to patchy early morning BR/FG and the potential for
isolated TSRA during peak heating, VFR conditions and light wind
will prevail. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       77  97  77  97 /  20  40  10  50
Meridian      75  97  75  97 /  10  20  10  50
Vicksburg     78  99  77  98 /  10  30  10  30
Hattiesburg   76  97  76  96 /  40  50  10  60
Natchez       77  98  76  96 /  10  30  10  30
Greenville    77  99  77  99 /  10  20  10  20
Greenwood     76  99  78  99 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ018-019-
     025>029-032>038-040>045-047>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

OAJ/SW/22/EC