212
FXUS64 KJAN 270558 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1258 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Rest of tonight...

A quiet night is on tap across the region. Upper air analysis
indicate ridge flattening across the Gulf Coast states. Light
return flow will continue to continue into the overnight hours.
Convection has waned and was mostly focused westward of the
earlier remnant cold pool west of Interstate 55 this afternoon to
evening. Light southerly sfc flow and elevated boundary layer
moisture will lead to another night of seasonably warm lows. Some
patchy ground fog can`t be ruled out near daybreak in Hwy 45 to
Interstate 59 corridors. Updates are out. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Rest of Today through next Wednesday...A mix of clouds and sun
this afternoon as a 591mb high pressure over the region continues
to move towards the northeast, allowing for a mid-lvl low to
migrate towards the west along the periphery of the ridge. Cloud
cover from morning convection will provide some relief from the
afternoon heat and humidity; however; heat indices could still
reach greater the 105 degrees in areas receiving more sun than
clouds. As a result, the heat advisory will continue through this
evening. As the low progress westward, afternoon heating with an
unstable airmass in place is expected to promote some organized
convected this afternoon and evening. A "Marginal" (1 out of 5)
risk for severe storms is in place across the CWA and damaging
winds are the primary hazard of concern.

Heading into the weekend: the ridge is expected to start flatten
over the southeast CONUS and a longwave trough will settle across
the northern CONUS. Afternoon showers/t-storm chances will continue
through the extended period as a frontal boundary is expected to
stall north of the area and the airmass remains unstable. In
addition to the stalled boundary, northwest flow may usher in some
shortwave disturbances throughout the week. Widespread rain chances
are expected (35-65% PoPs with best PoP chances east of I-55).
Temperatures aren`t expected to be as oppressive as dewpoint ranges
in the lower 70s and highs reaching the lower 90s. Depending on
cloud cover/rainfall received, heat indices could reach 105 degrees
or greater. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Scattered to numerous TSRA are expected Fri aftn with the greatest
coverage across the southeast. This will bring lower flying
conditions to the TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions wl prevail
through the TAF period away from the TSRA. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  91  73  91 /  10  40  10  60
Meridian      70  92  72  92 /  20  50  10  70
Vicksburg     74  92  74  92 /  10  30  10  40
Hattiesburg   72  93  73  93 /  20  70  10  80
Natchez       72  90  73  90 /  10  40  10  60
Greenville    74  92  74  91 /  10  30  10  40
Greenwood     73  93  74  92 /  10  40  10  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/SW/22