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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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109 FXUS64 KJAN 151924 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 224 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Tonight and tomorrow... Our area remains on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered over Texas and should be the primary influence in the near term. With humidity persisting through the night, temperatures should only drop to the mid to upper 70s tonight. Preceding rainfall and humidity could result in some patchy fog tomorrow morning in the Pine Belt region. Temperatures will be very similar tomorrow as they are today with mainly upper 90s and a few 100s possible. Dewpoints could be even higher tomorrow, in the upper 70s, with moisture pooling ahead of cold front which should push south later tomorrow. Will maintain heat headlines, and an expansion to the excessive heat warning may needed depending on timing of convection. Such conditions, along with increased flow with the front and favorable shear vector orientation should support at least a marginal severe risk tomorrow afternoon with damaging wind gusts the primary hazard. Storms should become more organized, possibly into a complex aided by 20 to 30kts of deep shear. They should push into the HWY 82 corridor mid to late afternoon and move southward towards I-20 in the evening. A marginal risk has been highlighted in the vicinity of the HWY 82 corridor, but expansion of this area could be possible./SAS/ Friday Night through Wednesday... Any organized convection has the potential to linger into the early afternoon and evening on Friday. The marginal risk for severe weather will be ongoing until near 9PM Thursday night. Damaging winds and up to quarter-size hail will continue to be the primary hazards of concerns. Overnight lows are expected to be in the mid 70s. Saturday will bring additional day of dangerous heat and humidity as a potent upper-lvl ridge continues to influence our weather. Persistent upper 90s/near 100 temps and heat indices in the 110-115 range will likely warrant additional heat warnings/advisories on Saturday. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms may be possible with a marginal risk for severe weather during the afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and up to quarter-size hail are the primary hazards of concern. The ridge is expected to begin migrating towards the west, placing the CWA on the periphery of the ridge, which allows northwest flow over the region. By Sunday, a low pressure near the Great Lakes will help push a frontal boundary towards the southeast, keeping chances for wetting rainfall in the forecast. At this time, severe weather is not outlooked for the area. Next Monday through the end of the extended period, the aforementioned frontal boundary is expected to move through the area. In the wake, dry air will filter into the area, decreasing dewpoints down into the 60s. Early week temperatures will begin slightly "cooler" than the previous week with highs in the lower 90s. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with scattered clouds building this afternoon and into tonight. A few popup showers and storms are possible this afternoon, particularly I-20 and south. These should clear later this evening. Visibilities could lower to 6SM at southern sites tomorrow morning, with patchy fog possible, not likely to impact overall air travel. Winds will prevail from the southwest around 3 to 5kts./SAS/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 77 99 76 98 / 10 40 10 50 Meridian 75 98 75 98 / 0 40 10 60 Vicksburg 77 99 77 98 / 10 20 10 30 Hattiesburg 77 98 75 98 / 10 50 10 40 Natchez 76 97 75 97 / 10 30 10 20 Greenville 77 99 78 98 / 0 10 10 20 Greenwood 77 100 77 98 / 0 20 20 30 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ018-019- 025>029-032-034>037-040>044-047>050-053>057-059>066-072>074. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ030-031-033-038-039- 045-046-051-052-058. LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026. AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for ARZ074-075. && $$ SAS20/SW/SAS20