259
FXUS64 KJAN 152354
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
654 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Tonight and tomorrow...

Our area remains on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered
over Texas and should be the primary influence in the near term.
With humidity persisting through the night, temperatures should only
drop to the mid to upper 70s tonight. Preceding rainfall and
humidity could result in some patchy fog tomorrow morning in the
Pine Belt region.

Temperatures will be very similar tomorrow as they are today with
mainly upper 90s and a few 100s possible. Dewpoints could be even
higher tomorrow, in the upper 70s, with moisture pooling ahead of
cold front which should push south later tomorrow. Will maintain
heat headlines, and an expansion to the excessive heat warning may
needed depending on timing of convection. Such conditions, along
with increased flow with the front and favorable shear vector
orientation should support at least a marginal severe risk tomorrow
afternoon with damaging wind gusts the primary hazard. Storms should
become more organized, possibly into a complex aided by 20 to 30kts
of deep shear. They should push into the HWY 82 corridor mid to late
afternoon and move southward towards I-20 in the evening. A marginal
risk has been highlighted in the vicinity of the HWY 82 corridor,
but expansion of this area could be possible./SAS/

Friday Night through Wednesday...

Any organized convection has the potential to linger into the early
afternoon and evening on Friday. The marginal risk for severe
weather will be ongoing until near 9PM Thursday night. Damaging
winds and up to quarter-size hail will continue to be the primary
hazards of concerns. Overnight lows are expected to be in the
mid 70s.

Saturday will bring additional day of dangerous heat and humidity as
a potent upper-lvl ridge continues to influence our weather.
Persistent upper 90s/near 100 temps and heat indices in the 110-115
range will likely warrant additional heat warnings/advisories on
Saturday. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms may be possible with a
marginal risk for severe weather during the afternoon and evening.
Damaging winds and up to quarter-size hail are the primary hazards
of concern. The ridge is expected to begin migrating towards the
west, placing the CWA on the periphery of the ridge, which allows
northwest flow over the region. By Sunday, a low pressure near the
Great Lakes will help push a frontal boundary towards the southeast,
keeping chances for wetting rainfall in the forecast. At this time,
severe weather is not outlooked for the area.

Next Monday through the end of the extended period, the
aforementioned frontal boundary is expected to move through the
area. In the wake, dry air will filter into the area, decreasing
dewpoints down into the 60s. Early week temperatures will begin
slightly "cooler" than the previous week with highs in the lower
90s. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Remaining SHRA/TSRA activity will dissipate early this evening.
Overall, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period,
but patchy areas of early morning could impact sites early Thu
morning. Later in the afternoon, iso/sct TSRA potential will
develop for roughly the southeast half of the forecast area. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       77  99  76  98 /  20  40  10  50
Meridian      75  98  75  98 /  30  40  10  60
Vicksburg     77  99  77  98 /  20  20  10  30
Hattiesburg   77  98  75  98 /  30  50  10  40
Natchez       76  97  75  97 /  20  30  10  20
Greenville    77  99  78  98 /  20  10  10  20
Greenwood     77 100  77  98 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ018-019-
     025>029-032-034>037-040>044-047>050-053>057-059>066-072>074.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ030-031-033-038-039-
     045-046-051-052-058.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

SAS20/SW/EC