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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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127 FXUS64 KJAN 160630 AAC AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 130 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Tonight and tomorrow... Our area remains on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered over Texas and should be the primary influence in the near term. With humidity persisting through the night, temperatures should only drop to the mid to upper 70s tonight. Preceding rainfall and humidity could result in some patchy fog tomorrow morning in the Pine Belt region. Temperatures will be very similar tomorrow as they are today with mainly upper 90s and a few 100s possible. Dewpoints could be even higher tomorrow, in the upper 70s, with moisture pooling ahead of cold front which should push south later tomorrow. Will maintain heat headlines, and an expansion to the excessive heat warning may needed depending on timing of convection. Such conditions, along with increased flow with the front and favorable shear vector orientation should support at least a marginal severe risk tomorrow afternoon with damaging wind gusts the primary hazard. Storms should become more organized, possibly into a complex aided by 20 to 30kts of deep shear. They should push into the HWY 82 corridor mid to late afternoon and move southward towards I-20 in the evening. A marginal risk has been highlighted in the vicinity of the HWY 82 corridor, but expansion of this area could be possible./SAS/ Friday Night through Wednesday... Any organized convection has the potential to linger into the early afternoon and evening on Friday. The marginal risk for severe weather will be ongoing until near 9PM Thursday night. Damaging winds and up to quarter-size hail will continue to be the primary hazards of concerns. Overnight lows are expected to be in the mid 70s. Saturday will bring additional day of dangerous heat and humidity as a potent upper-lvl ridge continues to influence our weather. Persistent upper 90s/near 100 temps and heat indices in the 110-115 range will likely warrant additional heat warnings/advisories on Saturday. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms may be possible with a marginal risk for severe weather during the afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and up to quarter-size hail are the primary hazards of concern. The ridge is expected to begin migrating towards the west, placing the CWA on the periphery of the ridge, which allows northwest flow over the region. By Sunday, a low pressure near the Great Lakes will help push a frontal boundary towards the southeast, keeping chances for wetting rainfall in the forecast. At this time, severe weather is not outlooked for the area. Next Monday through the end of the extended period, the aforementioned frontal boundary is expected to move through the area. In the wake, dry air will filter into the area, decreasing dewpoints down into the 60s. Early week temperatures will begin slightly "cooler" than the previous week with highs in the lower 90s. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 128 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, however the chance for SHRA or TSRA between around 20Z Friday to 01Z Saturday will bring possible brief periods of variable ceilings or visibility. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 76 98 76 99 / 10 50 30 10 Meridian 75 98 73 99 / 20 60 30 20 Vicksburg 77 98 77 99 / 10 30 20 10 Hattiesburg 75 98 76 99 / 20 40 20 10 Natchez 75 97 76 99 / 10 20 10 0 Greenville 78 98 75 97 / 10 20 20 10 Greenwood 77 98 75 96 / 10 30 30 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018- 019-025>029-032-034>037-040>044-047>050-053>057-059>066- 072>074. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ030-031-033-038- 039-045-046-051-052-058. LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074- 075. && $$ SAS20/SW/NF