321
FXUS64 KJAN 040540
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1240 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

While some stray shower can`t be ruled out this evening, rain
chances across northeast Louisiana and far western Mississippi
have ended for this evening. Adjusted POPs with latest guidance
for tomorrow afternoon, with chance POPs once again from around
Bastrop to Brookhaven and areas southwest of that line. A light
north wind will re-inforce drier air across most of the remainder
of the area. Afternoon high temperatures for the Independence Day
holiday will be around 95 degrees +/- 2 degrees. In the more humid
air of our southwestern zones, heat index values could top out
above 100 degrees. Otherwise, most locations will see peak heat
index values near 100. Be sure to stay cool and hydrated, and use
sunscreen if enjoying the day outdoors. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Through Wednesday: A 1020mb high to our north will shift east
through Friday while a large 592dam ridge just to our west does the
same. Going into the weekend the ridging surface and aloft will
allow temperatures to warm to the mid 90s. Lingering dry air looks
to limit greater heat risk initially, though heat indices still look
to be in the triple digits in the west and in river valleys.
Confidence in the increase in heat stress this weekend into next has
prompted the issuance of a "Limited" heat graphic for heat index
values around 105F for Saturday. By early next week, moisture
recovers, while flow becomes westerly. Heat indices may approach
heat thresholds (105-110), but with the increase of rain chances (40-
60%), will have to assess heat risk day to day. Additionally, some
potential severe risk will have to be assessed day to
day...especially Tuesday and Wednesday when global models suggest a
couple of disturbances dropping through the region from the
northwest during prime heating. Otherwise, expect seasonal daily
diurnally driven convection to continue early to mid next week.
/SAS/22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the period with
a light northerly wind./KP/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       93  72  95  73 /   0   0  10   0
Meridian      94  72  95  72 /   0   0  10   0
Vicksburg     94  73  96  75 /  10   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   95  73  97  73 /  10   0  30  10
Natchez       93  72  95  74 /  30   0  10   0
Greenville    93  72  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     94  72  96  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/SAS20/KP/22