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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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102 FXUS64 KJAN 170158 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 858 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 856 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Tonight`s forecast will be a broad repeat of last night`s, eschewing the errant thunderstorm in Forrest County expected to die off over the next hour or so: Overnight tonight into the early morning hours we will see another bout of warm, steamy, and calm conditions. Lows are expected to be between 75F-80F across the region tonight with relative humidity values in the 95% range, making for another oppressively muggy night, tonight. Sky conditions are expected to be partly cloudy which will contribute to our warm overnight lows, as the surface struggles to radiate out efficiently. There is a organized convective system upstream in Arkansas moving towards the region, this system is expected to continually weaken and dissipate overnight before reaching us. The forecast continues to be on track tonight and tomorrow./OAJ/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Tonight through late next week... Dangerous heat remains the primary concern in the near term as our area remains on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered over Texas. With low level moisture holding steady, temperatures should only drop to the mid to upper 70s tonight. Therefore, will maintain heat headlines overnight. Temperatures are unlikely to change much tomorrow with mainly upper 90s and a few 100s possible. Dewpoints should hold in the mid to upper 70s, resulting in heat indices in the 105 to 112 range across the area. Excessive heat warning will continue tomorrow for much of the area, and a heat advisory will continue in the east. Additionally, these hot and humid conditions, along with increased flow and favorable shear vector orientation could support isolated to scattered thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon with damaging wind gusts the primary hazard. There is some uncertainty however regarding the potential for remnant outflow to disrupt the environment and guidance has downtrended on chances. Should the environment remain relatively untapped, favorable convective parameters should support at least a marginal severe risk. Rainfall totals look to be around quarter to half inch, and it should be spotty, with widespread soaking rain unlikely. Heat is likely to continue into Sunday. Have extended the heat graphic in HWO to capture this. Moisture pooling ahead of the advancing cold front should hold dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s for another day, temperatures warm into the upper 90s and low 100s. Heat indices once again peak in the 105 to 112 range. Timing of the front though does introduce a big of uncertainty that could impact heat risk on Sunday, so confidence isn`t quite high enough at this time to pick a definitive area for heat headlines. Showers and storms are possible Sunday too, however a lot is dependent on Saturday and guidance has trended down on chances for Sunday as well. By Sunday night, an upper trough will drive the cold front south, with dry air and seasonal temps in its wake. Next week should be fairly dry and seasonal with temperatures mainly in the low 90s. Troughing to the east and ridging to the west should maintain NW flow through much of next week, keeping dry conditions. By the end of next week, moisture begins to return as low level flow turns southerly. This should reintroduce low rain chances in the south. Some guidance tries to develop a low to our southwest by next weekend, in which case, rain chances should generally increase./SAS/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Remaining SHRA/TSRA activity will diminish in coverage/intensity as we go through the evening. Overall, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period along with light surface wind, but patchy areas of early morning could impact sites early Sat morning. By Sat aftn, iso/sct TSRA potential should develop, but confidence is lower than usual regarding where activity may initiate due to uncertain boundary interactions./EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 76 98 77 101 / 10 30 20 20 Meridian 75 99 73 101 / 10 50 20 20 Vicksburg 76 98 77 101 / 0 10 10 20 Hattiesburg 76 99 76 101 / 40 30 10 10 Natchez 76 97 76 100 / 10 10 0 10 Greenville 77 97 76 100 / 10 10 20 20 Greenwood 77 98 76 99 / 10 20 20 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ018-019- 025>029-032-034>037-040>044-047>050-053>057-059>066-072>074. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ030-031-033-038-039- 045-046-051-052-058. LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ007>009- 015-016-023>026. AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ074-075. && $$ OAJ/SAS20/EC