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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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522 FXUS64 KJAN 170636 AAC AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 136 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 127 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 At the current hour, radar and satellite imagery trends indicate a complex of storms moving southeast across Arkansas are in the process of weakening. Reflectivity cores have been outpaced by the outflow boundary racing southeastward, and IR satellite imagery show warming cloud tops with lead part of this system. It can`t be ruled out that any additional showers or storms would develop from the outflow, but it would appear that MLCIN is strong enough to dampen new convection at this time. METAR observations from central Arkansas have reported wind gusts of around 40 mph with the outflow boundary, so even if storms stay northwest of our ear through the early morning, a brief period of strong wind gusts may move into the ArkLaMiss Delta region over the next hour or so. If the storms continue to weaken, even this outflow should continue to lose its punch. Did introduce a slight chance for showers or storms to far northern parts of the CWA through 12Z in case. /NF/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Tonight through late next week... Dangerous heat remains the primary concern in the near term as our area remains on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered over Texas. With low level moisture holding steady, temperatures should only drop to the mid to upper 70s tonight. Therefore, will maintain heat headlines overnight. Temperatures are unlikely to change much tomorrow with mainly upper 90s and a few 100s possible. Dewpoints should hold in the mid to upper 70s, resulting in heat indices in the 105 to 112 range across the area. Excessive heat warning will continue tomorrow for much of the area, and a heat advisory will continue in the east. Additionally, these hot and humid conditions, along with increased flow and favorable shear vector orientation could support isolated to scattered thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon with damaging wind gusts the primary hazard. There is some uncertainty however regarding the potential for remnant outflow to disrupt the environment and guidance has trended lower with those chances. Should the environment remain relatively untapped, favorable convective parameters should support at least a marginal severe risk. Rainfall totals look to be around quarter to half inch, and it should be spotty, with widespread soaking rain unlikely. Heat is likely to continue into Sunday. Have extended the heat graphic in HWO to capture this. Moisture pooling ahead of the advancing cold front should hold dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s for another day, temperatures warm into the upper 90s and low 100s. Heat indices once again peak in the 105 to 112 range. Timing of the front though does introduce a big of uncertainty that could impact heat risk on Sunday, so confidence isn`t quite high enough at this time to pick a definitive area for heat headlines. Showers and storms are possible Sunday too, however a lot is dependent on Saturday and guidance has trended down on chances for Sunday as well. By Sunday night, an upper trough will drive the cold front south, with dry air and seasonal temps in its wake. Next week should be fairly dry and seasonal with temperatures mainly in the low 90s. Troughing to the east and ridging to the west should maintain NW flow through much of next week, keeping dry conditions. By the end of next week, moisture begins to return as low level flow turns southerly. This should reintroduce low rain chances in the south. Some guidance tries to develop a low to our southwest by next weekend, in which case, rain chances should generally increase./SAS/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 127 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 VFR conditions should prevail at the TAF sites through the period, however the chance for scattered SHRA or TSRA mainly between 19Z today to 01Z Sunday does bring the possibility of variable ceilings, gusty winds, and reduced visibility near any stronger storms. Current confidence in impacts to any particular TAF site from thunder were too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 76 101 75 94 / 20 20 40 10 Meridian 74 101 72 94 / 20 20 50 10 Vicksburg 76 101 74 93 / 20 20 40 10 Hattiesburg 77 101 75 97 / 20 10 50 20 Natchez 76 100 75 93 / 20 10 30 10 Greenville 76 100 72 92 / 20 20 30 10 Greenwood 75 99 72 92 / 20 20 30 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018- 019-025>029-032-034>037-040>044-047>050-053>057-059>066- 072>074. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ030-031-033-038- 039-045-046-051-052-058. LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074- 075. && $$ SAS20/NF