707
FXUS64 KJAN 021426 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
926 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 925 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Rest of Today...High pressure aloft and at the surface continues to
slowly build east into the region today, as a mid/upper level trough
slowly exist east of the forecast area.  This trough is responsible
for a frontal boundary that likewise will continue to slowly sink
south through the CWA through the course of the day.  Behind this
front, slightly drier air will filter south into the region.  While
along and ahead of it, very humid conditions will persist, with some
isolated showers and storms possible during the heat of the
afternoon, particularly along and south of the Highway 84 corridor.
Otherwise, high temperatures today, under mostly sunny skies, will
be toasty as they peak in the low to middle 90s.

The ongoing forecast is in good shape.  I`ll make the normal
adjustments to hourly elements of the forecast based on current
trends.  Otherwise, no major changes will be made on this morning`s
forecast update. /19/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

In general, the evolving weather pattern of the next several days
will support lower rain chances as drier air is ushered into our
forecast area. The two main drivers of this pattern will be upper-
level ridging that will shift from the Plains eastward toward the
Mid-South and a low pressure disturbance slowly drifting west
along the Gulf Coast region. Subsidence associated with the ridge
and the southward trajectory of drier continental air between
these two features should push regional PWAT values below 1.5
inches for about the northeastern 2/3rds of the forecast area
Wednesday. Ribbons of deeper moisture values will remain on the
edges of our area, so some parts of the area may still have an
isolated shower or storm possible, but the net effect is lower
rain chances across the area. Northeast and central LA and
southern portions of MS retain rain chances for Wednesday
afternoon. Mostly drier weather expected Thursday and again on
Friday, July 4th. Area residents should still mind the weather as
an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out for the holiday
afternoon/evening.

Depending on exactly how the coastal disturbance evolves, these
"ribbons" of moisture may overspread portions of the region with
very slight rain chances in the forecast at this time through
Sunday. Increased humidity and more typical summery temperatures
and afternoon/evening chances for showers and thunderstorms build
back into the area for Monday and Tuesday next week. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Areas of LIFR/IFR low clouds and/or fog are ongoing and will
remain possible over the next hour or two. Beyond that, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of the
TAF period. Isolated SHRA cannot be ruled out in south MS and
central LA today, but probabilities are too low to include in
TAF. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       91  71  91  70 /  10   0   0   0
Meridian      91  69  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
Vicksburg     92  72  92  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   93  72  94  71 /  20   0   0   0
Natchez       91  72  91  73 /  10   0  10   0
Greenville    92  72  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     92  70  91  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19