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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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274 FXUS64 KJAN 160551 AAC AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1251 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 956 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Overnight tonight there will be generally unremarkable conditions persisting throughout as the well defined zone of surface convergence laying just to the south of the CWA. Remnant mid level cloud coverage produced from convection associated with the aforementioned surface boundary will persist well into the early morning. This, combined with high boundary layer moisture, will limit radiational cooling, keeping our overnight lows relatively high: between 76F and 79F. Overall the overnight forecast will be an uneventful yet unseasonably warm one throughout portions of the CWA tonight. Some patchy fog is possible in localized regions, especially in northeast Mississippi where recent storms and lows could fall a few degrees below crossover temps. Forecast continues to remain on track for tonight and tomorrow. /OAJ/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Through Tonight: Thunderstorms in northeast Mississippi around the Louisville- Columbus area are currently the only focus for rain chances in our forecast area this afternoon. Guidance favors anywhere in eastern Mississippi through the early evening for additional rain chances, and a disturbed field of cumulus clouds could yield an additional few clusters or showers or storms. Brief isolated showers have even appeared around northeast LA at times so far this afternoon, so will keep the current forecast in place. Early onset of convection and cloud development today appears to have limited peak heating potential for our southwestern parishes and counties, with most obs sites south of I-20 in the 93 over 73 range giving heat indices around 103-105. Delta sites are the warmest with higher dew points pushing heat indices closer to 108-110. With lift and southwesterly flow aloft associated with trough axis overhead, rain chances will linger into the evening. Warm and muggy conditions will continue overnight with lows in the mid 70s typical of mid July. /NF/ Tuesday through early next week: Dangerous heat stress will be the primary hazard to start off the extended period as global guidance shows a broad high pressure system stretching across the Southern Plains region. At the same time, a 591dam upper trough will continue to extend southwards in the Ozarks/TN River Valley towards the TN/GA state line. This will result in increasing low-level heights across the southeast CONUS Tuesday/Wednesday as a low level ridge will start to build into the region ahead of the next system. Southwesterly flow from the Gulf Coast will unfortunately promote dangerous heat stress across our forecast area around this timeframe. Afternoon highs will climb into the mid to upper 90s across central MS, with a few spots across the Delta potentially reaching 100 degrees. The combination of southwesterly flow along with high afternoon temperatures will yield heat indices anywhere between 105-115 deg range. We went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for the entire forecast area for Tuesday from 10 AM - 8 PM Tuesday evening. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for Wednesday given the increased warming trends. Given the heat indices for Wednesday, a couple of areas across the Delta and across south and west MS will likely get upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning. No changes have been made to the heat graphic for tomorrow, especially for areas where the Heat Advisory is in effect. Could see some updates to the heat graphic for Wednesday. Precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday will range from isolated to scattered especially in E/SE portions of MS. Relief from the heat is on the way heading into Thursday as the ridge will break down allowing for a broad positively tilted trough axis to dip southward across the ArkLaMiss region. This will help increase storm chances across the CWA and introduce more seasonable temperatures through the weekend. PWATs will be abnormally high along the coast, with values exceeding 2.5 inches at times. Because of this, some storms could produce locally heavy rainfall at times which could lead to some localized flash flooding in a couple of areas. Forecast confidence at this point is low given the uncertainty regarding the placement of the trough axis. We will continue to monitor flash flooding potential for this weekend. Later on Sunday, future guidance hints at low level ridging building in from the Southeast US. This will allow for afternoon temperatures to increase into the 90s heading into the new work week, with heat indices climbing up to 105 degrees for areas in the southern portions of our forecast area. With the frontal boundary hanging up along the Gulf Coast, scattered to numerous rain/storm chances will be possible through the new work week. /CR/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR conditions prevail across the area early this morning. Brief patchy fog can`t be ruled out around daybreak, but probabilities are too low to include in the TAF at this time. Scattered SHRA and TS will be possible, mainly during the afternoon to early evening hours, which may result in brief categorical reductions and gusty wind. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 97 76 96 75 / 30 10 50 30 Meridian 97 74 98 73 / 40 10 60 40 Vicksburg 97 77 97 75 / 10 0 20 30 Hattiesburg 96 77 96 76 / 50 10 60 30 Natchez 95 75 95 76 / 20 0 30 20 Greenville 97 77 97 73 / 0 0 20 40 Greenwood 97 77 97 73 / 10 0 40 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074. LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ OAJ/NF/CR/DL