118
FXUS64 KJAN 230640 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
140 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Tonight and tomorrow...

We remain in a wet and slightly cooler pattern thanks to a trough
axis and associated stalled surface frontal boundary trapped between
upper ridging to west and east. The resulting moist advection will
continue to support rain chances with some locally heavy rain and
training, leading to local flash flooding concerns. As such, a
limited risk for flash flooding will continue to be messaged in the
HWO through Tuesday night. The more pronounced moist flow will aid
in sustaining rain overnight as well, a shift from the mainly
diurnal activity we have seen this past weekend. Moist Gulf airmass
will be less suppressed Tuesday, opening the door for greater rain
chances further north and west. On the bright side, this area has
recently experienced greater drought conditions, and so this rain
should be a welcome relief. /SAS/

Tuesday Night through early next week...

Not much to talk about in the long term period. Rain/storm chances
will continue through the extended period as we continue to remain
situated between an upper level trough across the Central Plains,
along with a stalled frontal boundary and ridging over the
southeastern CONUS. Because of this, southwesterly flow will
continue to spread across our forecast area through the mid week.
This combined with a constant steady flow of tropical moisture from
the Gulf Coast will support high end PoP chances across central MS.
Global guidance does show a upper level closed low tracking
eastwards towards the Great Lakes Region by late Wednesday evening.
Unfortunately, this will do very little to help ease storm chances
across our CWA. Although severe weather is not expected, a few
strong storms will be possible through the late week. Some of these
storms will produce heavy downpours at times along with several
inches of rainfall in a short period of time which will lead to some
localized flash flooding in a few spots. HREF guidance is showing a
weak QPF signal for Wednesday. Nevertheless, QPF trends will continued
to be monitored heading into the weekend. Rain chances will start to
see a slight decrease in intensity across our forecast area heading
into Saturday as future guidance hints at a high pressure system
shifting east towards the Upper East Coast and portions of southern
Canada. This will allow for the front to slowly shift east out our
area as a ridge begins to build over the ArkLaMiss region. Heading
into the new work week, rain chances will continue to decrease in
intensity as the aforementioned ridge continues to build over the
southeast region. This will allow for heat to make a brief return to
the area heading into Tuesday. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Areas of light rain were impacting much of the forecast area to
start the TAF period, with some low stratus in the MVFR range
possible near areas of steady rain through around 15Z to 18Z
today. SHRA and isolated TSRA will become more likely between 18Z
today to 00Z Wednesday especially along and south of the
Interstate 20 corridor. Variable conditions are possible near any
heavier showers or storms. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  82  71  82 /  70  90  60  80
Meridian      72  84  69  85 /  40  90  60  90
Vicksburg     72  82  71  81 /  70  90  60  70
Hattiesburg   73  85  71  88 /  50 100  50  90
Natchez       72  79  71  80 /  80  90  60  70
Greenville    72  82  71  80 /  60  70  40  60
Greenwood     72  82  71  81 /  60  80  50  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SAS20/CR/NF