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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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588 FXUS64 KJAN 191212 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 712 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 453 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Today through Tonight... Early morning water vapor/RAP & evening hand analysis indicate the region remaining in perturbed flow/trough axis. The main corridor of the vertically stacked low resides over eastern Canada. Deep ridging persists in two areas: over the Four Corners, northern Rockies to west-northwestern Canada & southwestern Atlantic subtropical ridging extending into the FL Peninsula to southeast Gulf of Mexico. This Rex Block type will keep an active pattern expected through this afternoon through evening. Water vapor analysis indicates a stronger spoke of the jet over the Gulf Coast region, with some increased vorticity/ascent driving the early morning shower development. There is some ongoing convection for areas along & west of the MS River corridor & also into the Golden Triangle, but expected a gradual uptick in more scattered to numerous showers & some storms into the aftn. The highest coverage will be along & southeast of the Natchez Trace corridor while more more scattered to the northwest. Light upwind propagation vectors, soupy tropical airmass of 2-2.25 inches (>90th percentile) precipitable water (PWs) & HREF localized prob match mean / maximum of the ensemble envelope that could support some 3-4", with localized 5-7" rainfall amounts. HREF prob match mean indicate 30% probs of >3 inches along & southeast of the Natchez Trace. Even though some of these central areas have not seen as much rain recently, slow-moving, tropical downpours with warm rain processes (i.e. freezing levels >15kft) support localized heavy downpours & flash flooding potential in low-lying & urban areas. Introduced a "Limited" graphic for areas southeast of the Natchez Trace, mainly along & south of a line from along the I-55 corridor in Grenada to Issaquena in MS & westward along the I-20 corridor in West-East Carroll & Morehouse parishes in LA. This seems to be the most focused corridor of potential that could persist into the weekend, so we continued mention of this into Saturday. Temperatures will be seasonably cool today in the low- mid 80s, with seasonable lows in the upper 60s-low 70s through the weekend. Heat stress will be held in check today. Some patchy fog is possible in the Pine Belt this morning & again into tonight, especially in areas that receive sufficient rainfall. There are some HREF probs for dense fog but confidence is low with broad cloud shield/stratus expected across the area. While some strong storms can`t be ruled out due to some light westerly bulk shear in the 0-6km layer, severe storms will be hard pressed in the low lapse rate environment. /DC/ Saturday through Friday... The long term period will remain stuck in this stagnant pattern of rain as tropical moisture and multiple rounds of shortwave energy flow into the southeastern states. Upper level troughing will remain centered over the mid/lower MS Valley throughout the longterm period often being influenced by the shortwave energy of a low pressure system as it makes its way through the mid-west. With this current weather regime pops will continue to be scattered to numerous in coverage with some areas of heavy precip but generally much of the same day to day throughout the period. It is worth noting that SE Ark/MS Delta will see lower storm coverage this weekend as PWs drop into the 1.5in range before building back into the 2-2.5in range at the beginning of next week. With the consistent nature of this pattern and areas already seeing rainfall totals upwards of 2in, a limited flash flooding threat was introduced in the graphical HWO for a majority of the CWA through this weekend as some areas could see upwards of 2-4in of rain with locally higher amounts. At least for this weekend portions of SE Ark/MS Delta with lower PW values show indications that they will be left out of the higher bands of rain thus were excluded from the limited threat. As for heat, consistent cloud cover and rain chances will keep the heat in check, keeping max temps well below climo for this time of the year. /KP/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 712 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Deep moisture persisting across the region is aiding in some early morning SHRA development, with additional scattered to widespread SHRA & TSRA psbl, with the best chance for TS after 19/19Z. Low stratus & patchy BR are ongoing in central- eastern TAF sites, with MVFR-IFR ceilings, with MEI & PIB down to LIFR. SHRA & TSRA this aftn will wind down by 20/01-03Z Saturday, with additional MVFR-IFR stratus/ceilings at central to east-southeast TAF sites, outside of GLH, after 20/06-08Z. MEI, HBG & PIB could fall as low as LIFR flight categories overnight through daybreak Saturday. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 85 71 88 72 / 80 50 80 50 Meridian 86 70 88 71 / 80 70 90 60 Vicksburg 85 71 88 72 / 70 30 50 30 Hattiesburg 87 73 90 73 / 80 60 90 50 Natchez 85 71 88 72 / 80 40 60 40 Greenville 85 69 88 71 / 40 10 20 10 Greenwood 84 70 88 71 / 60 20 40 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/KP/DC