868
FXUS63 KILX 220810
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
310 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog is possible this morning where there was recent
  precipitation and zero dewpoint depression.

- Light showers or sprinkles (10-20%) will persist through Tuesday
  with a cold front bringing better chances (30-50%) for showers
  and storms on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Patchy dense fog is being seen across west central Illinois this
morning where dewpoint depressions of 0 and calm winds are. However,
it should dissipate quickly as the sun comes up. Today and tomorrow,
some sprinkles or isolated light showers are possible (20% chance)
once again. Some cold air funnels could occur today with this
persistent upper low lingering overhead.

The better chances for showers and thunderstorms come Wednesday as a
upper shortwave / surface cold front travels through the area. POPs
increase to 30-50% by the afternoon. MUCAPE along and ahead of the
front is decent with 1500-2500 J/kg but the bulk wind shear has
decreased since previous forecasts. 00z guidance shows around
15-20 knots of bulk wind shear. This suggests that the storms that
do develop could be pulsey in nature. Some of those storms could
be near severe for some stronger wind gusts as a storms collapses.


Temperatures start to warm back up through the week. Heat indices
also climb by the weekend, getting near 100 degrees by
Sunday/Monday. Temperatures will range in the 80s but could see 90s
again by Sunday. It is looking like we may have a warm start to
August, with the CPC indicating a 50-55% chance of above normal
temperatures for the first week of August.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Some concern remains with shallow fog development toward daybreak.
A few of the high-res models have been getting a bit more
aggressive with this potential on the evening model runs. However,
NBM probability of <5SM is still only in the 30-40% range, and
HREF ensembles are generally less than 10%. Confidence still is
not there to include a TEMPO group yet, but the region from KSPI-
KPIA would be the area to watch.

Otherwise, VFR conditions to remain in place through Monday
evening, with ceilings generally above 10kft, though down to
around 6,000 feet at times.

Geelhart

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$