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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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684 FXUS61 KILN 180035 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 835 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Occasional periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend as a low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes region. High pressure and a drier airmass will then build into the Ohio Valley through the workweek. Below normal temperatures and abundant sunshine are expected for the first half of the workweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Showers and thunderstorms are diminishing in strength and coverage as instability weakens and short wave energy shifts east. Have loaded latest hi-res model blend for a relatively accurate picture of current to near future weather, depicting a continuing weakening trend for the convection into tonight. Later tonight, when shower chances are confined to southeastern locations, temperatures will fall off into the mid and upper 60s under partly cloudy skies. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... The lumbering mid/upper level low/trof deepens/digs into the ern Great Lakes/OH Vly region on Sunday, yielding broad/deep- layer cyclonic flow in the region and fairly impressive negative height anomalies to go along with it. This will translate to a rather unsettled pattern locally Sunday as the combination of typical diurnally-driven summertime heating and LL moisture coinciding with cooler temps aloft will generate numerous cellular/disorganized SHRA, with perhaps a rumble of thunder, during the afternoon into early evening Sunday. Daytime highs will be quite a bit cooler on Sunday, owing to extensive/expansive cloud cover and numerous afternoon SHRA pinwheeling around the low center just to the NE of the ILN FA. Temps should top out in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees, with likely to categorical PoPs from SW to NE, respectively, across the local area for the afternoon time period. Sunday will likely be one of those days where it rains on-and-off several times in any one location over the course of the daytime, but perhaps not amounting to more than a third to half of an inch in total. Drier and cooler conditions evolve Sunday night as temps dip into the lower/mid 60s as slightly drier air begins to slowly filter into the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Deep trough along the Appalachians at the start of the period will weaken and lift out mid to late week allowing mid level pattern to deamplify. Thereafter, high pressure centered over the southern Plains will be able to sprawl east northeast across the region and to the Atlantic seaboard by the end of the period. Surface high pressure will predominate through the week leading to dry conditions. Temperatures will be below normal, especially at night, through mid week. A warming trend will ensue as upper heights rise and readings will be back above normal by Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Unsettled weather with scattered showers and storms will diminish early tonight as daytime instability wanes. MVFR ceilings are expected later tonight as low level moisture converges in the cyclonic circulation around low pressure to the north. Slow improvement to VFR is likely Sunday as mixing increases during the afternoon, also allowing VCSH, -SHRA and VCTS as instability peaks again. Winds from the northwest will top out around 12 knots Sunday afternoon. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM... AVIATION...Coniglio