684
FXUS61 KILN 180035
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
835 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the weekend as a low pressure system moves through the
Great Lakes region. High pressure and a drier airmass will then
build into the Ohio Valley through the workweek. Below normal
temperatures and abundant sunshine are expected for the first
half of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Showers and thunderstorms are diminishing in strength and
coverage as instability weakens and short wave energy shifts
east. Have loaded latest hi-res model blend for a relatively
accurate picture of current to near future weather, depicting a
continuing weakening trend for the convection into tonight.
Later tonight, when shower chances are confined to southeastern
locations, temperatures will fall off into the mid and upper 60s
under partly cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The lumbering mid/upper level low/trof deepens/digs into the
ern Great Lakes/OH Vly region on Sunday, yielding broad/deep-
layer cyclonic flow in the region and fairly impressive negative
height anomalies to go along with it. This will translate to a
rather unsettled pattern locally Sunday as the combination of
typical diurnally-driven summertime heating and LL moisture
coinciding with cooler temps aloft will generate numerous
cellular/disorganized SHRA, with perhaps a rumble of thunder,
during the afternoon into early evening Sunday.

Daytime highs will be quite a bit cooler on Sunday, owing to
extensive/expansive cloud cover and numerous afternoon SHRA
pinwheeling around the low center just to the NE of the ILN FA.
Temps should top out in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees, with
likely to categorical PoPs from SW to NE, respectively, across the
local area for the afternoon time period. Sunday will likely be one
of those days where it rains on-and-off several times in any one
location over the course of the daytime, but perhaps not amounting
to more than a third to half of an inch in total. Drier and
cooler conditions evolve Sunday night as temps dip into the
lower/mid 60s as slightly drier air begins to slowly filter into
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Deep trough along the Appalachians at the start of the period will
weaken and lift out mid to late week allowing mid level pattern to
deamplify. Thereafter, high pressure centered over the southern
Plains will be able to sprawl east northeast across the region and
to the Atlantic seaboard by the end of the period.

Surface high pressure will predominate through the week leading to
dry conditions. Temperatures will be below normal, especially at
night, through mid week. A warming trend will ensue as upper heights
rise and readings will be back above normal by Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Unsettled weather with scattered showers and storms will
diminish early tonight as daytime instability wanes. MVFR
ceilings are expected later tonight as low level moisture
converges in the cyclonic circulation around low pressure to the
north. Slow improvement to VFR is likely Sunday as mixing
increases during the afternoon, also allowing VCSH, -SHRA and
VCTS as instability peaks again. Winds from the northwest will
top out around 12 knots Sunday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Coniglio