524
FXUS61 KILN 120543
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
143 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the region through the middle
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A few mid and high level clouds will stream east across the
region at times overnight. It will be another cool night with
lows in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Surface high will remain across the region through the period.
Short wave will track southeast across the area Monday afternoon
with secondary energy moving through Monday night. This will
bring abundant mid level moisture along with some lift. There
continues to be a question of whether this can overcome the dry
low levels and result in any precipitation. A number of the high
resolution runs suggest that there will be echoes with some
relatively stronger elements within that. If that occurs, then
there will be some places, mainly in southern counties, that
could get a little bit of measurable rainfall. So while this
may end up just being sprinkles, believe that it does deserve
mentionable PoP.

Increasing clouds should be late enough in the day to allow
temperatures to warm just a bit higher than today, in the upper
70s and lower 80s. With the clouds lingering into Monday night,
lows will be warmer as well with readings in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure west of the region will track east into MI by
Wednesday morning, residing north of Lake Erie by Thursday morning.
Thursday evening will see southerly flow return to the Ohio Valley,
bringing increased moisture to the region through at least Friday.
By Friday evening, the divergence in the models brings the future
evolution of mass fields in question for the weekend. Friday evening
(00Z Saturday) shows the GFS with a H5 cutoff low in eastern IA with
a negative tilt reaching the western Ohio Valley, breaking down a
ridge over OH/PA. European has a broad open low over ern MI
extending nnw to the northern shores of Lake Superior with the broad
axis of the low north of Ohio creating zonal upper flow. Canadian at
this time has a pronounced l/w trough reaching south through WI and
IL that also pushes the upper ridge ahead of it to the east. Though
the overall pattern aloft has large variations in how it evolves
from Fri through Sun, models do agree that an upper circulation or
broad trough is over the region through this time frame.

Expect dry pattern to persist through Fri morning, though the
quicker evolution of the European has a broad area of decent
rainfall developing in the northwest Thursday night and
overspreading the rest of the CWA in the evening and overnight,
exiting Friday morning. GFS and Canadian have a slower evolution
with rain starting Friday afternoon (GFS) or Friday night (Canadian)
and spreading east. The positive tilt of the l/w trough of the
Canadian keeps precip nw of the I-71 corridor through daybreak
Saturday while the GFS pulls rain through the CWA Friday night and
keeps precip over us through Sunday with the circulation of the low
remaining over IN this coming weekend. Other models end precip Fri
night (Euro) or Saturday night (Canadian). The presence of lower H5
pressure and a northern flow for the models showing this further
north suggests at least some showers activity should be possible and
in the forecast beginning Thurs night/Fri, lingering through the
weekend. By no means will this be a washout - it should have
significant periods between showers, and lighter shower activity Sat
night and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
West-northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building
into the area. Expect only some scattered high level clouds
this morning. Some patchy river valley fog will be possible
toward sunrise and this could lead to some MVFR to IFR vsby
restrictions at KLUK. Otherwise, a mid level disturbance will
move through the Ohio Valley this afternoon into tonight. This
will lead to an increase in mainly mid level clouds and perhaps
a few light showers or sprinkles. Coverage is too low to mention
in the TAF forecast at this time.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...AR