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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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524 FXUS61 KILN 120543 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 143 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the region through the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A few mid and high level clouds will stream east across the region at times overnight. It will be another cool night with lows in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Surface high will remain across the region through the period. Short wave will track southeast across the area Monday afternoon with secondary energy moving through Monday night. This will bring abundant mid level moisture along with some lift. There continues to be a question of whether this can overcome the dry low levels and result in any precipitation. A number of the high resolution runs suggest that there will be echoes with some relatively stronger elements within that. If that occurs, then there will be some places, mainly in southern counties, that could get a little bit of measurable rainfall. So while this may end up just being sprinkles, believe that it does deserve mentionable PoP. Increasing clouds should be late enough in the day to allow temperatures to warm just a bit higher than today, in the upper 70s and lower 80s. With the clouds lingering into Monday night, lows will be warmer as well with readings in the upper 50s and lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure west of the region will track east into MI by Wednesday morning, residing north of Lake Erie by Thursday morning. Thursday evening will see southerly flow return to the Ohio Valley, bringing increased moisture to the region through at least Friday. By Friday evening, the divergence in the models brings the future evolution of mass fields in question for the weekend. Friday evening (00Z Saturday) shows the GFS with a H5 cutoff low in eastern IA with a negative tilt reaching the western Ohio Valley, breaking down a ridge over OH/PA. European has a broad open low over ern MI extending nnw to the northern shores of Lake Superior with the broad axis of the low north of Ohio creating zonal upper flow. Canadian at this time has a pronounced l/w trough reaching south through WI and IL that also pushes the upper ridge ahead of it to the east. Though the overall pattern aloft has large variations in how it evolves from Fri through Sun, models do agree that an upper circulation or broad trough is over the region through this time frame. Expect dry pattern to persist through Fri morning, though the quicker evolution of the European has a broad area of decent rainfall developing in the northwest Thursday night and overspreading the rest of the CWA in the evening and overnight, exiting Friday morning. GFS and Canadian have a slower evolution with rain starting Friday afternoon (GFS) or Friday night (Canadian) and spreading east. The positive tilt of the l/w trough of the Canadian keeps precip nw of the I-71 corridor through daybreak Saturday while the GFS pulls rain through the CWA Friday night and keeps precip over us through Sunday with the circulation of the low remaining over IN this coming weekend. Other models end precip Fri night (Euro) or Saturday night (Canadian). The presence of lower H5 pressure and a northern flow for the models showing this further north suggests at least some showers activity should be possible and in the forecast beginning Thurs night/Fri, lingering through the weekend. By no means will this be a washout - it should have significant periods between showers, and lighter shower activity Sat night and Sun. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... West-northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building into the area. Expect only some scattered high level clouds this morning. Some patchy river valley fog will be possible toward sunrise and this could lead to some MVFR to IFR vsby restrictions at KLUK. Otherwise, a mid level disturbance will move through the Ohio Valley this afternoon into tonight. This will lead to an increase in mainly mid level clouds and perhaps a few light showers or sprinkles. Coverage is too low to mention in the TAF forecast at this time. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...AR