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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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921 FXUS61 KILN 122335 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 735 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak upper level disturbance will cross the area overnight. Otherwise, high pressure will persist through Wednesday night. A storm system will move through the Great Lakes late in the week bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Short wave over Illinois late this afternoon will track east southeast across the region tonight. This will bring a rather extensive cloud deck with it. In addition, some light echoes will pass across southern counties. While dry air will remain in place in the low levels, likely keeping most precipitation very light (sprinkles), it is not out of the question that a few locations near and south of the Ohio River could get a bit of measurable rainfall. Lows will generally be in the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Clouds will decrease on Tuesday as a short wave moves further away from the area. Surface high will remain in place leading to quiescent conditions. Highs will be in the lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure across the Great Lakes provides light northeasterly flow to start the long term period with temperatures near normal for mid-August. Dry air throughout the atmosphere keeps rainfall out of the forecast. Much of the same is expected on Thursday morning, but the high pressure will have shifted to the east. This results in light southeasterly winds and temperatures a few degrees warmer, especially across the Ohio and Scioto River regions. With the upper-level ridge axis entering the area Thursday afternoon, deeper moisture introduces more expansive cloud cover and the potential for rain into eastern Indiana and west-central Ohio. Warm-air advection continue through the overnight into Friday, increasing the potential for rain and a few rumbles of thunder area wide. The ridge axis moving through the region on Thursday night is quite narrow and therefore short lived as the next trough digs into the Midwest. A low pressure entering the Great Lakes Friday morning places the local area within the warm sector, increasing the potential of additional rainfall and thunderstorms. Mid-level lapse rates are as to be expected for mid-August, quite poor, likely limiting the overall severe threat during the afternoon. If sufficient heating occurs, can`t rule out a few wet microbursts during the afternoon/evening as the cold front moves through. The low pressure moves through the Great Lakes quite slowly during the weekend as the upper level flow becomes more amplified across the CONUS. Ensemble suites still differ on how significant the amplification is and with how quickly the trough propagates through, causing lower confidence for the weekend forecast. GFS/ens are more amplified and slower to bring ridging back into the region, providing a longer duration to cooler than normal conditions into middle of next week. ECMWF/ens are faster and farther north. All of this means that the specifics for the weekend forecast are subject to change depending on model trends over the coming days. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR will continue through this forecast as low level moisture is scant through the period. While ceilings remain well above 3000 ft and visibility 10SM, light rain to the west should dissipate tonight before reaching TAF sites. Winds staying light will be mainly from the north. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...McGinnis AVIATION...Coniglio