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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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813 FXUS61 KILN 131037 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 637 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak upper level disturbance will cross the area early this morning with a few light showers coming to an end. Otherwise, high pressure will persist through Wednesday night offering dry weather. A storm system will move through the Great Lakes late in the week bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Northwest mid level flow with a weak embedded shortwave moving thru the area early this morning. Scattered showers across the south from a mid level cloud deck will come to an end early this morning as the shortwave shifts off to the east. Clouds will decrease this afternoon as the short wave moves further away from the area. Surface high will remain in place leading to quiet weather conditions. Highs will be in the lower 80s and middle 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Northwest mid level flow with surface high pressure established over the area tonight. Skies look to be mainly clear with a light low level northeast flow overnight. Cool lows to range from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Mid level ridge axis over the MS Valley to nudge a little east Wednesday offering height/thickness rises. Dry and mostly sunny sky conditions will be the rule with a warming trend. High temperatures to range from the lower 80s northwest to the upper 80s southeast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... On Wednesday evening, an area of surface high pressure will be centered near Lake Ontario, with its influence over the Ohio Valley beginning to wane as it drifts to the east. Aloft, troughing will be in place over the northeastern coast, with a somewhat-muted area of ridging beginning to build into the Ohio Valley from the southwest. The weather will still be somewhat stagnant heading into Wednesday night and Thursday morning, as surface flow will remain light until the surface high gets a little further away from the area. By Thursday afternoon, the narrow ridge axis will already be moving through the area. Behind the axis, although surface flow will remain out of the southeast, flow at 850mb and above will be shifting to the southwest, with a surge of theta-e moving into the area. This will allow showers to spread into the area by Thursday afternoon and evening. Later on Thursday night, boundary layer flow will become more southerly as well, providing enough theta-e advection ahead of an approaching mid-level trough to allow fairly widespread precipitation to develop across the area. The timing for the highest probability of precipitation now appears to be before 12Z Friday, with the initial trough axis already moving out of the area by then. By later Friday, as the overall pattern becomes more amplified, there is a considerable amount of model spread regarding the evolution of the trough. This trough may close off into a low over the Great Lakes, or may remain more progressive as it moves east. In either case, the Ohio Valley will be on its southern periphery, in a regime of generally westerly flow -- with chances for precipitation continuing. PoPs will be kept in the forecast each day from Friday through Saturday and Sunday, but with gradually diminishing chances from one day to the next due to temporal forecast uncertainty and the fact that stronger forcing will likely be displaced to the north and east with time. The potential for hazardous weather on Friday remains uncertain, but with no obvious signs of anything significant. High precipitable water values (approaching 2") could mean some isolated heavy rain is possible. Instability and wind shear appear capable of supporting a low-end severe wind threat on Friday afternoon, with poor lapse rates being a limiting factor. As these remain low-end and low- confidence forecasts, will not mention this in the HWO as of yet. Temperatures in the middle to upper 80s are expected Thursday and Friday, with cooler values in the lower to mid 80s over the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Northwest mid level flow with a weak embedded shortwave moving thru the area early this morning. A few lingering light showers will be possible across the southern TAF sites. With the low levels relatively dry - expect these showers to fall from mid level ceilings. Precipitation exits the area early with only some mid and high level clouds thinning out as we head into the afternoon hours. Main influence from another embedded shortwave expected to remain north of the TAF sites but some mid level clouds may re-develop back across KCMH and KLCK this afternoon. Expect skies to become mostly clear this evening. With light winds and mainly clear skies - the development of valley fog will be possible tonight. Have a mention of MVFR vsby restrictions at KLUK but IFR conditions can not be ruled out. Light winds will be mainly from the north. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...AR