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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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134 FXUS61 KILN 141713 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 113 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will drift to the east of the region tonight, with a more humid airmass set to filter into the area by late Thursday through Friday. Showers are storms are expected at times late Thursday night through Friday evening, with some scattered showers and storms lingering into the weekend as well. Near normal temperatures will prevail through Friday before slightly cooler air returns this weekend through the first half of next workweek. Drier conditions return for Monday and beyond. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... A picturesque day continues as abundant sunshine, with a few fair-weather Cu, and seasonably mild temperatures persist region-wide. Negative PWAT anomalies will remain entrenched across the region through tonight, translating to tranquil and pleasant conditions locally. Temps this afternoon will top out in the mid to upper 80s, with dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. A midlevel ridge axis will traverse the region through late tonight as it slowly flattens out. Rounding the peak of this ridge will be some mid/upper level moisture, which should thin to some degree as it attempt to impinge on the slowly-retreating ridge axis. So even though dry conditions will persist through tonight, some mid/high level clouds will be on the increase from the W late, especially toward daybreak and beyond. Temps tonight will be a few degrees warmer than previous nights, owing to patchy mid/high clouds. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The ridge axis retreats and flattens with eastward extent into the day Thursday as a S/W progresses E through the OH Vly and into the local area into the afternoon. This will provide a substantial increase in mid/high clouds, although the lower part of the profile should still remain fairly dry. This thicker layer of antecedent dry air will erode the pcpn shield with eastward extent, inhibiting much in the way of widespread measurable pcpn through the afternoon. Certainly a few sprinkles or very light SHRA will be possible into mid afternoon, especially near/W of I-75. But most spots remain dry through the afternoon as temps top out generally in the lower (near/W of I-75) to upper (south-central OH/NE KY) 80s. More robust moisture/theta-e advection will be underway as we progress into Thursday night, but the best pooling of LL (SB) instby will likely stay to the W/SW of the immediate local area. Better broad-scale forcing will arrive late Thursday night as the trof axis digs into the mid MS Rvr Vly, promoting a bit more widespread shower/storm activity across at least a part of the region. While the best coverage of activity will be focused where the best instby resides (srn IL/srn IN/wrn KY), some elevated convection should still spread E into the local area by the predawn hours toward daybreak Friday even as the LL environment remains quite stable. Although there are questions regarding how much thunder will be present in this setup early Friday morning, it is during this stretch that the highest PoPs are likely to be focused. Still yet, there are indications that ern parts of the local area may remain completely dry through the entirety of the short term period. Lows Thursday night dip into the upper 60s and lower 70s amidst a notably more humid airmass. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A broad mid-level trough will be moving east across the northern tier of states, reaching the upper Midwest by 12Z Friday morning. On the southern periphery of this broad trough, forcing will be on the increase over the Ohio Valley, as a result of some shortwaves rotating around the base of the trough. Attention will then turn to the potential for additional convective development on Friday afternoon. The potential strength of these storms will be dependent on several factors, including the degree of contamination from the morning precipitation. Model soundings suggest the atmosphere will destabilize, though the degree is unclear, especially as there are differences in the handling of lapse rates (particularly mid-level lapse rates). There does appear to be some broad forcing for ascent as a result of the trough, as well as some renewed 925mb-850mb theta-e advection during the afternoon. Wind shear appears sufficient for some degree of storm organization, and precipitable water values will be approaching two inches. Though uncertainty remains, this setup does support at least some lower-end risk for severe weather and heavy rainfall. Specific timing details and thermodynamic profiles will be the main questions, and uncertainty on those factors precludes a greater concern as of now. Models are coming into somewhat better agreement on the progression of the trough over the weekend. It will be moving slowly, but may only briefly develop into a closed low before it continues moving east. The Ohio Valley will be on its southern periphery, in a regime of generally westerly flow -- with chances for precipitation continuing. PoPs will be kept in the forecast each day from Saturday through Monday, but with gradually diminishing chances from one day to the next due to temporal forecast uncertainty and the fact that stronger forcing will likely be displaced to the north and east with time. Temperatures in the middle to upper 80s are expected Friday, with cooler values in the lower to mid 80s over the weekend and into next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FEW/SCT VFR Cu are expected until sunset with a few cirrus beginning to filter in from the W past 00z. Mid/high cloud cover will be on the increase from the W toward daybreak and beyond, with perhaps a few sprinkles possible at KCVG/KLUK/KDAY by mid/late morning. However, most of the area is expected to remain dry through the period, with VFR conditions prevailing, aside from some MVFR river valley BR at KLUK between 06z-12z. Light NE winds around 6-8kts will go more easterly tonight at 5kts or less before going southerly at 5-10kts once again by 18z Thursday. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...KC