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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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246 FXUS61 KILN 150835 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 435 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure shifts east of the Ohio Valley today which will allow southerly flow to redevelop bringing in warmer temperatures and more humidity. Shower and storm chances increase late Thursday night into Friday morning when a warm front lifts through the Ohio Valley. Shower and storms chances may linger into Saturday morning when a cold front moves through. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure starts shifting east of the region today. Increasing southerly winds develop west of the high which will allow for another warm day with some increasing moisture. Upper and middle level clouds may increase during the day due to a middle level vorticity max moving through. Forecast highs are in the upper 80s near the Ohio River and lower 80s north of I-70. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... Tonight will likely start off mostly dry while a warm front approaches from the west. Temperatures remain mild due to increasing cloud cover and veering southerly winds. Shower and storm chances really start increasing toward the second half of the overnight (after 0800z) when the warm front enters the area from the west bringing elevated MUCAPE and higher PWATs. There does not appear to be a severe threat associated with the first round of convection near the warm front since MUCAPE is forecast to be low. A flood threat is not expected since storms are likely to be progressive along with the front. There is descent CAM support for the initial round of showers/storms along the warm front pushing east of the area by late Friday morning. Forecast uncertainty grows by Friday afternoon. While some MLCAPE is expected to develop behind the morning convection, especially near the Ohio River, a local minimum in PWATs is currently modeled to be moving through Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Lowering PWATs behind the morning convection along with lack of forcing may result in fairly minimal storm coverage. However, if storms do form, high DCAPE (as reflected by low PWATs) along with increasing shear could lead to a severe wind threat. Forecast highs on Friday are in the middle to upper 80s. Warmer temperatures will be accompanies by a noticeable increase in humidity which may result in some increasing heat risk during the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper level low over the northern Great Lakes will meander east through Sunday morning and weaken to an open trough as it reaches eastern Lake Erie Sunday afternoon. Heights will build behind the trough until the end of the forecast period when shortwave energy or a weak circulation moves from the Upper Midwest into the western Ohio Valley. Showers and thunderstorms Friday evening will decrease overnight and Saturday, ramping back up in the afternoon and evening with insolation and a closer proximity of the stacked cutoff low. Sunday will be similar to the previous day, with a significant nocturnal decrease Saturday night ramping back up Sunday afternoon and evening. The subsequent overnight drop in activity Sunday night will see some uptick in the eastern CWA Monday morning as the axis of the upper trough pushes through. The upper ridging behind this feature will keep a dry forecast for the remainder of the extended period. Temperatures are expected to drop a bit on Saturday from Friday`s highs, then moreso on Sunday where highs only top out in the upper 70s to near 80. These cooler temperatures look to linger through mid week and begin to rise closer to normal on Thursday. Overnight lows will exhibit a similar curve with readings in the upper 60s to near 70 Friday night decrease to the low to mid 60s Saturday night and low 60s Sunday night. After this, lows in the mid to upper 50s will prevail for the remainder of the forecast. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions persist during the TAF period. Only some upper and middle level clouds along with VFR diurnal cumulus are forecast through 0600z Friday. After 0600z, chances for showers/storms and MVFR ceilings increase. Light easterly winds persist through 1200z. Winds veer to the south by 1800z and increase to 10-15 knots for the rest of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Campbell SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Campbell