246
FXUS61 KILN 150835
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
435 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts east of the Ohio Valley today which will allow
southerly flow to redevelop bringing in warmer temperatures and more
humidity. Shower and storm chances increase late Thursday night into
Friday morning when a warm front lifts through the Ohio Valley.
Shower and storms chances may linger into Saturday morning when a
cold front moves through.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure starts shifting east of the region today. Increasing
southerly winds develop west of the high which will allow for
another warm day with some increasing moisture. Upper and middle
level clouds may increase during the day due to a middle level
vorticity max moving through. Forecast highs are in the upper 80s
near the Ohio River and lower 80s north of I-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Tonight will likely start off mostly dry while a warm front
approaches from the west. Temperatures remain mild due to
increasing cloud cover and veering southerly winds. Shower and
storm chances really start increasing toward the second half of
the overnight (after 0800z) when the warm front enters the area
from the west bringing elevated MUCAPE and higher PWATs. There
does not appear to be a severe threat associated with the first
round of convection near the warm front since MUCAPE is forecast
to be low. A flood threat is not expected since storms are
likely to be progressive along with the front. There is descent
CAM support for the initial round of showers/storms along the
warm front pushing east of the area by late Friday morning.

Forecast uncertainty grows by Friday afternoon. While some MLCAPE is
expected to develop behind the morning convection, especially near
the Ohio River, a local minimum in PWATs is currently modeled to be
moving through Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Lowering PWATs
behind the morning convection along with lack of forcing may result
in fairly minimal storm coverage. However, if storms do form, high
DCAPE (as reflected by low PWATs) along with increasing shear could
lead to a severe wind threat.

Forecast highs on Friday are in the middle to upper 80s. Warmer
temperatures will be accompanies by a noticeable increase in
humidity which may result in some increasing heat risk during the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level low over the northern Great Lakes will meander east
through Sunday morning and weaken to an open trough as it reaches
eastern Lake Erie Sunday afternoon. Heights will build behind the
trough until the end of the forecast period when shortwave energy or
a weak circulation moves from the Upper Midwest into the western
Ohio Valley.

Showers and thunderstorms Friday evening will decrease overnight and
Saturday, ramping back up in the afternoon and evening with
insolation and a closer proximity of the stacked cutoff low. Sunday
will be similar to the previous day, with a significant nocturnal
decrease Saturday night ramping back up Sunday afternoon and
evening. The subsequent overnight drop in activity Sunday night will
see some uptick in the eastern CWA Monday morning as the axis of the
upper trough pushes through. The upper ridging behind this feature
will keep a dry forecast for the remainder of the extended period.

Temperatures are expected to drop a bit on Saturday from Friday`s
highs, then moreso on Sunday where highs only top out in the upper
70s to near 80. These cooler temperatures look to linger through mid
week and begin to rise closer to normal on Thursday.

Overnight lows will exhibit a similar curve with readings in the
upper 60s to near 70 Friday night decrease to the low to mid 60s
Saturday night and low 60s Sunday night. After this, lows in the mid
to upper 50s will prevail for the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions persist during the TAF period. Only some upper
and middle level clouds along with VFR diurnal cumulus are
forecast through 0600z Friday. After 0600z, chances for
showers/storms and MVFR ceilings increase.

Light easterly winds persist through 1200z. Winds veer to the south
by 1800z and increase to 10-15 knots for the rest of the TAF
period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Campbell