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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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411 FXUS61 KILN 150513 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 113 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will drift to the east of the region tonight, with a more humid airmass set to filter into the area by late Thursday through Friday. Showers or storms are expected at times late Thursday night through Friday evening, with some scattered showers and storms lingering into the weekend as well. Near normal temperatures will prevail through Friday before slightly cooler air returns this weekend through the first half of next workweek. Drier conditions return for Monday and beyond. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Evening update... No major changes to the near term period as mostly clear skies persist through the late evening and into the early overnight. Scattered shower activity and periods of light rain moving through northern Illinois will gradually approach the OH/IN border between 4-6 am. Added a mention of sprinkles ahead initial showers from the previous forecast. Previous discussion... A picturesque day continues as abundant sunshine, with a few fair-weather Cu, and seasonably mild temperatures persist region-wide. Negative PWAT anomalies will remain entrenched across the region through tonight, translating to tranquil and pleasant conditions locally. Temps this afternoon will top out in the mid to upper 80s, with dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. A midlevel ridge axis will traverse the region through late tonight as it slowly flattens out. Rounding the peak of this ridge will be some mid/upper level moisture, which should thin to some degree as it attempt to impinge on the slowly-retreating ridge axis. So even though dry conditions will persist through tonight, some mid/high level clouds will be on the increase from the W late, especially toward daybreak and beyond. Temps tonight will be a few degrees warmer than previous nights, owing to patchy mid/high clouds. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... The ridge axis retreats and flattens with eastward extent into the day Thursday as a S/W progresses E through the OH Vly and into the local area into the afternoon. This will provide a substantial increase in mid/high clouds, although the lower part of the profile should still remain fairly dry. This thicker layer of antecedent dry air will erode the pcpn shield with eastward extent, inhibiting much in the way of widespread measurable pcpn through the afternoon. Certainly a few sprinkles or very light SHRA will be possible into mid afternoon, especially near/W of I-75. But most spots remain dry through the afternoon as temps top out generally in the lower (near/W of I-75) to upper (south-central OH/NE KY) 80s. More robust moisture/theta-e advection will be underway as we progress into Thursday night, but the best pooling of LL (SB) instby will likely stay to the W/SW of the immediate local area. Better broad-scale forcing will arrive late Thursday night as the trof axis digs into the mid MS Rvr Vly, promoting a bit more widespread shower/storm activity across at least a part of the region. While the best coverage of activity will be focused where the best instby resides (srn IL/srn IN/wrn KY), some elevated convection should still spread E into the local area by the predawn hours toward daybreak Friday even as the LL environment remains quite stable. Although there are questions regarding how much thunder will be present in this setup early Friday morning, it is during this stretch that the highest PoPs are likely to be focused. Still yet, there are indications that ern parts of the local area may remain completely dry through the entirety of the short term period. Lows Thursday night dip into the upper 60s and lower 70s amidst a notably more humid airmass. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Period begins with Great Lakes low pressure dragging a cold front across the Ohio Valley. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Friday in the moist and unstable southerly flow ahead of this system. The potential for strong storms will exist due to favorable wind shear that will enhance storm magnitude, while copious moisture advection will contribute to a heavy rain threat. As additional short wave energy rotates back into the Ohio Valley Friday night into Monday, a diminished threat for showers and storms will continue. Dry weather is indicated for Tuesday and Wednesday when high pressure is forecast to settle across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Regarding temperatures, nothing too drastic is expected as we move to late August, with highs starting in the mid and upper 80s Friday, retreating slightly to the upper 70s to mid 80s for the remainder of the period. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions persist during the TAF period. Only some upper and middle level clouds along with VFR diurnal cumulus are forecast through 0600z Friday. After 0600z, chances for showers/storms and MVFR ceilings increase. Light easterly winds persist through 1200z. Winds veer to the south by 1800z and increase to 10-15 knots for the rest of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...KC/McGinnis SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Campbell