411
FXUS61 KILN 150513
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
113 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will drift to the east of the region
tonight, with a more humid airmass set to filter into the area
by late Thursday through Friday. Showers or storms are expected
at times late Thursday night through Friday evening, with some
scattered showers and storms lingering into the weekend as well.
Near normal temperatures will prevail through Friday before
slightly cooler air returns this weekend through the first half
of next workweek. Drier conditions return for Monday and beyond.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Evening update...
No major changes to the near term period as mostly clear skies
persist through the late evening and into the early overnight.
Scattered shower activity and periods of light rain moving
through northern Illinois will gradually approach the OH/IN
border between 4-6 am. Added a mention of sprinkles ahead
initial showers from the previous forecast.

Previous discussion...
A picturesque day continues as abundant sunshine, with a few
fair-weather Cu, and seasonably mild temperatures persist
region-wide. Negative PWAT anomalies will remain entrenched
across the region through tonight, translating to tranquil and
pleasant conditions locally. Temps this afternoon will top out
in the mid to upper 80s, with dewpoints generally in the mid to
upper 50s.

A midlevel ridge axis will traverse the region through late tonight
as it slowly flattens out. Rounding the peak of this ridge will
be some mid/upper level moisture, which should thin to some
degree as it attempt to impinge on the slowly-retreating ridge
axis. So even though dry conditions will persist through
tonight, some mid/high level clouds will be on the increase from
the W late, especially toward daybreak and beyond. Temps
tonight will be a few degrees warmer than previous nights, owing
to patchy mid/high clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The ridge axis retreats and flattens with eastward extent into
the day Thursday as a S/W progresses E through the OH Vly and
into the local area into the afternoon. This will provide a
substantial increase in mid/high clouds, although the lower part
of the profile should still remain fairly dry. This thicker
layer of antecedent dry air will erode the pcpn shield with
eastward extent, inhibiting much in the way of widespread
measurable pcpn through the afternoon. Certainly a few sprinkles
or very light SHRA will be possible into mid afternoon,
especially near/W of I-75. But most spots remain dry through the
afternoon as temps top out generally in the lower (near/W of
I-75) to upper (south-central OH/NE KY) 80s.

More robust moisture/theta-e advection will be underway as we
progress into Thursday night, but the best pooling of LL (SB)
instby will likely stay to the W/SW of the immediate local area.
Better broad-scale forcing will arrive late Thursday night as
the trof axis digs into the mid MS Rvr Vly, promoting a bit more
widespread shower/storm activity across at least a part of the
region. While the best coverage of activity will be focused
where the best instby resides (srn IL/srn IN/wrn KY), some
elevated convection should still spread E into the local area by
the predawn hours toward daybreak Friday even as the LL
environment remains quite stable. Although there are questions
regarding how much thunder will be present in this setup early
Friday morning, it is during this stretch that the highest PoPs
are likely to be focused. Still yet, there are indications that
ern parts of the local area may remain completely dry through
the entirety of the short term period.

Lows Thursday night dip into the upper 60s and lower 70s amidst
a notably more humid airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Period begins with Great Lakes low pressure dragging a cold front
across the Ohio Valley. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast for
Friday in the moist and unstable southerly flow ahead of this
system. The potential for strong storms will exist due to favorable
wind shear that will enhance storm magnitude, while copious moisture
advection will contribute to a heavy rain threat. As additional
short wave energy rotates back into the Ohio Valley Friday night
into Monday, a diminished threat for showers and storms will
continue. Dry weather is indicated for Tuesday and Wednesday when
high pressure is forecast to settle across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley.

Regarding temperatures, nothing too drastic is expected as we move
to late August, with highs starting in the mid and upper 80s Friday,
retreating slightly to the upper 70s to mid 80s for the remainder of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions persist during the TAF period. Only some upper
and middle level clouds along with VFR diurnal cumulus are
forecast through 0600z Friday. After 0600z, chances for
showers/storms and MVFR ceilings increase.

Light easterly winds persist through 1200z. Winds veer to the south
by 1800z and increase to 10-15 knots for the rest of the TAF
period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC/McGinnis
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Campbell