231
FXUS61 KILN 151941
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
341 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure approaching the Ohio Valley from the west will
provide an increasing chance of showers and storms tonight.
Scattered storms will continue to be possible Friday through
the weekend. Dry and cooler weather will arrive next week as
broad high pressure builds into the Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Weak warm air advection will continue to impact the middle Ohio
Valley this evening through tonight in the southwest flow ahead
of a mid- level trough over the northern Plains states. This
will lead to continued mostly cloudy skies and scattered
showers. Precipitation will likely increase late (toward
morning) as moisture increases in depth, with a few rumbles of
thunder possible as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main concern for the short term period on Friday through Friday
night will be storm coverage and intensity Friday afternoon.
With bulk shear values around 25 knots and MLCAPE of 1000-1500J,
storms that develop could be strong to severe. Main threat
looks to be damaging winds based on forecast DCAPE values.
However, there appears to be a lack in forcing to initiate
convection. Have held PoPs in the chance category for now and
will continue to monitor.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A somewhat anomalous weather pattern will be established for the
beginning of the long term period as a mid/upper level low/trof
deepens/digs into the ern Great Lakes/OH Vly region, yielding
broad/deep-layer cyclonic flow in the region and fairly impressive
negative height anomalies to go along with it. This will translate
to a rather unsettled pattern locally as the combination of typical
diurnally-driven summertime heating and LL moisture coinciding with
cooler temps aloft will generate some moderate to strong daytime
instby Saturday, perhaps lingering a bit into Sunday.

Subtle height falls will be ongoing during the day Saturday, with
enough forcing amidst a largely-uncapped environment to promote
development of SCT convection, likely focused near/S of the I-71
corridor during the afternoon into early evening. Latest guidance
suggests that some wraparound mid/upper level dry air may allow for
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies through the first part of the
day in these areas, supporting more robust daytime heating and
contributing to slightly stronger instby. From an ingredients
perspective, with moderate instby and sufficient deep-layer
(unidirectional) flow, certainly the potential for a few strong to
severe storms, with gusty/damaging winds and small hail, cannot be
ruled out Saturday. This would/could especially be the case in SW
OH, N KY, and central OH into NE KY where the greatest coverage of
afternoon/evening storms is expected to be.

Highs on Saturday may get quite warm, especially if sufficient early
day clearing materializes. Highs very well could get near 90
degrees, especially SE of I-71, with dewpoints still in the upper
60s to near 70 degrees. Overnight lows will remain near to slightly
above normal through this weekend, with overnight lows generally in
the mid 60s.

Scattered to numerous showers, and perhaps an ISO storm, will remain
in the fcst through Sunday, especially with some diurnally-driven
enhancement expected as the midlevel low/trof drifts SE more into
the region. Daytime highs will be quite a bit cooler on Sunday,
owing to extensive/expansive cloud cover and numerous afternoon
showers pinwheeling around the low center just to the NE of the ILN
FA. Temps should top out in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees, with
likely to categorical PoPs from SW to NE, respectively, across the
local area for the afternoon time period.

The potential for showers will persist into Monday morning near/SE
of I-71 as the main trof axis /finally/ pivots through the area,
yielding increasingly dry/clear conditions into the afternoon hours.
A /very/ dry airmass will filter into the region late Monday through
midweek, allowing for dry and seasonably mild conditions for at
least the first half of next workweek.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Light showers will be scattered across the terminals to start
the TAF period. Some increase in shower coverage along with
embedded thunder is likely as a weak warm front approaches the
middle Ohio Valley late tonight into Friday morning. Can`t rule
out a brief period of MVFR ceilings and a temporary IFR or MVFR
visibility in the convection... but will keep this out of the
TAFs for now until confidence improves on spatial extent.

After a period of quiet weather through midday, afternoon
heating along with an approaching mid-level trough will provide
the impetus for widely scattered showers and storms. There
could be some gusty winds associated with these storms.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...