895
FXUS61 KILN 121929
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
329 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms
will move northeast tonight, leaving weak high pressure and dry
weather for Saturday. A wave of low pressure will bring the
threat for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday.
A few showers and thunderstorms may occur on Monday in the
persistently unstable pattern. A better chance for showers and
thunderstorms will a accompany a cold front expected to push
through during the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed today over
the west half of the FA in a humid and unstable weather regime
enhanced by short wave energy evident on IR satellite. Main
effects from this activity has been heavy downpours, though
cells appear to be moving fast enough to mitigate flood risk.
Eastward extent of storms may be limited by lower instability
across eastern counties. Expect this convective activity to
wane this evening with loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows
in the mid 60s to 70 are forecast by 6 am.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather is forecast for Saturday under weak high pressure.
Highs temperatures ranging from the upper 80s to the low 90s
will be a few degrees above normal.

A relatively potent packet of short wave energy will be pushing
toward the Central Great Lakes on Saturday night. A round of
showers and thunderstorms may begin to affect western locations
after midnight. Strength, timing, and impacts of this system are
still somewhat uncertain and later forecasts should be able to
more accurately determine the affects to our area.

Low temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Summertime pattern continues through much of the extended. To start,
a disturbance will provide an increasing chance of showers and
storms Sunday. Conditions appear favorable for an MCS to develop and
move with the flow across the Great Lakes through Sunday morning.
There is still significant uncertainty here with the details, so
will stay with high chance PoPs during this time.  It will be hot
this day as well, but coverage of precipitation may provide some
relief at times.

Weak mid-level ridging extends back east into the region for Monday
into early Tuesday. Can`t rule out an isolated storm or two Monday
with low-level moisture and persistent instability, however the
primary weather story during this time will be increasing heat under
the ridge. Blended guidance continues to show max heat indices
approaching 100 degrees both days.

By later on Tuesday, a stronger shortwave will cause a cold front to
sag southeast into the Ohio Valley late in the day. Showers and
storms will again increase in coverage ahead of this feature Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday before a cooler air mass arrives behind the
front. This will offer some relief to the heat through the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR is forecast to start the TAF period at most sites. VCTS
will impact CVG LUK DAY and ILN this afternoon until dissipating
by evening. Put TSRA with MVFR at CVG where such conditions may
be imminent. Will amend to add TSRA at other sites if direct
impacts are expected. For tonight, under humid and calm
conditions, BR is forecast to develop and reduce visibility at
CVG LUK DAY and ILN. A return to VFR along with dry weather is
anticipated for Saturday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Coniglio