861
FXUS61 KILN 181023
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
623 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes will bring
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to our area today.
High pressure will then build into the region, bringing dry and
seasonably cool conditions through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Low pressure will continue to move east across the lower Great
Lakes today. This will keep our area in cyclonic flow and with
some daytime heating, expect scattered showers to develop
through late morning and then become more numerous through the
afternoon. A few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible
during the afternoon hours. A cooler airmass will start to settle
into the area today with afternoon highs only in the mid 70s to
lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Lingering showers will taper off this evening with the loss of
daytime heating. Surface high pressure will begin to build
slowly in from the northwest tonight into Monday. This will
lead to dry conditions and cooler temperatures. Lows tonight
will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s with highs on Monday in the
mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A dry forecast is in store for the region. Cooler temperatures will
prevail through Thursday night, with low to mid 70s on Wednesday and
Thursday, and a few degrees on either side of 80s for Thursday.
Overnight lows will have a chill to them for this time of year.
Monday night will be 50-55 degrees, Tuesday night - the coolest in
the period - near 50 degrees, 50-55 Wednesday night, and mid to
upper 50s Thursday night.

Starting Friday, readings will warm to above or just above normal
Friday, mid to upper 80s Saturday, and within a degree or two of 90
on Sunday. Lows Friday and Saturday nights will be 60-65, much
closer to normal.

Upper level ridging in the mid section of the country will keep a
northwest flow in the Ohio Valley, coupled with a surface high
building into northern MI. This will bring a nne surface flow until
the high settles over the IN/MI/OH and northern Ohio region
Wednesday night. Return flow sets up on Friday, signaling a switch
to warm air advection as the surface high moves east. Upper heights
will continue to build as the high in the mid sections of the
country shows little movement though the flow in the Ohio Valley
becomes more zonal westerly later Friday and Saturday. The ridge
will then become more pronounced on Sunday, bringing nw flow aloft
back to the Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR stratus has been gradually filling in across much of the area
over the last few hours and expect this trend to continue
through mid morning. We should then see cigs gradually lift
into MVFR through late morning and early afternoon and eventually
VFR later this afternoon. Meanwhile, scattered showers and
embedded thunderstorms will develop from late morning and into
this afternoon with the daytime heating. This activity will
taper off this evening with partial clearing developing.
However, MVFR cigs will redevelop overnight and continue into
Monday morning.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...JGL