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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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861 FXUS61 KILN 181023 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 623 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to our area today. High pressure will then build into the region, bringing dry and seasonably cool conditions through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... Low pressure will continue to move east across the lower Great Lakes today. This will keep our area in cyclonic flow and with some daytime heating, expect scattered showers to develop through late morning and then become more numerous through the afternoon. A few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible during the afternoon hours. A cooler airmass will start to settle into the area today with afternoon highs only in the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Lingering showers will taper off this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Surface high pressure will begin to build slowly in from the northwest tonight into Monday. This will lead to dry conditions and cooler temperatures. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s with highs on Monday in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A dry forecast is in store for the region. Cooler temperatures will prevail through Thursday night, with low to mid 70s on Wednesday and Thursday, and a few degrees on either side of 80s for Thursday. Overnight lows will have a chill to them for this time of year. Monday night will be 50-55 degrees, Tuesday night - the coolest in the period - near 50 degrees, 50-55 Wednesday night, and mid to upper 50s Thursday night. Starting Friday, readings will warm to above or just above normal Friday, mid to upper 80s Saturday, and within a degree or two of 90 on Sunday. Lows Friday and Saturday nights will be 60-65, much closer to normal. Upper level ridging in the mid section of the country will keep a northwest flow in the Ohio Valley, coupled with a surface high building into northern MI. This will bring a nne surface flow until the high settles over the IN/MI/OH and northern Ohio region Wednesday night. Return flow sets up on Friday, signaling a switch to warm air advection as the surface high moves east. Upper heights will continue to build as the high in the mid sections of the country shows little movement though the flow in the Ohio Valley becomes more zonal westerly later Friday and Saturday. The ridge will then become more pronounced on Sunday, bringing nw flow aloft back to the Ohio Valley. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... IFR stratus has been gradually filling in across much of the area over the last few hours and expect this trend to continue through mid morning. We should then see cigs gradually lift into MVFR through late morning and early afternoon and eventually VFR later this afternoon. Meanwhile, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will develop from late morning and into this afternoon with the daytime heating. This activity will taper off this evening with partial clearing developing. However, MVFR cigs will redevelop overnight and continue into Monday morning. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...JGL