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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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726 FXUS61 KILN 160546 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 146 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure approaching the Ohio Valley from the west will provide an increasing chance of showers and storms tonight. Scattered storms will continue to be possible Friday through the weekend. Dry and cooler weather will arrive next week as broad high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Band of showers that developed near IND has entered our area, so have increased pops to categorical for the next couple of hours. Models show weakening as the showers move east into a drier environment. Will monitor radar and obs and make further adjustments as needed. Chance for thunder appears low due to lack of instability. Lows in the upper 60s are expected by 6 am. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Main concern for the short term period on Friday through Friday night will be storm coverage and intensity Friday afternoon. With bulk shear values around 25 knots and MLCAPE of 1000-1500J, storms that develop could be strong to severe. Main threat looks to be damaging winds based on forecast DCAPE values. However, there appears to be a lack in forcing to initiate convection. Have held PoPs in the chance category for now and will continue to monitor. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A somewhat anomalous weather pattern will be established for the beginning of the long term period as a mid/upper level low/trof deepens/digs into the ern Great Lakes/OH Vly region, yielding broad/deep-layer cyclonic flow in the region and fairly impressive negative height anomalies to go along with it. This will translate to a rather unsettled pattern locally as the combination of typical diurnally-driven summertime heating and LL moisture coinciding with cooler temps aloft will generate some moderate to strong daytime instby Saturday, perhaps lingering a bit into Sunday. Subtle height falls will be ongoing during the day Saturday, with enough forcing amidst a largely-uncapped environment to promote development of SCT convection, likely focused near/S of the I-71 corridor during the afternoon into early evening. Latest guidance suggests that some wraparound mid/upper level dry air may allow for mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies through the first part of the day in these areas, supporting more robust daytime heating and contributing to slightly stronger instby. From an ingredients perspective, with moderate instby and sufficient deep-layer (unidirectional) flow, certainly the potential for a few strong to severe storms, with gusty/damaging winds and small hail, cannot be ruled out Saturday. This would/could especially be the case in SW OH, N KY, and central OH into NE KY where the greatest coverage of afternoon/evening storms is expected to be. Highs on Saturday may get quite warm, especially if sufficient early day clearing materializes. Highs very well could get near 90 degrees, especially SE of I-71, with dewpoints still in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Overnight lows will remain near to slightly above normal through this weekend, with overnight lows generally in the mid 60s. Scattered to numerous showers, and perhaps an ISO storm, will remain in the fcst through Sunday, especially with some diurnally-driven enhancement expected as the midlevel low/trof drifts SE more into the region. Daytime highs will be quite a bit cooler on Sunday, owing to extensive/expansive cloud cover and numerous afternoon showers pinwheeling around the low center just to the NE of the ILN FA. Temps should top out in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees, with likely to categorical PoPs from SW to NE, respectively, across the local area for the afternoon time period. The potential for showers will persist into Monday morning near/SE of I-71 as the main trof axis /finally/ pivots through the area, yielding increasingly dry/clear conditions into the afternoon hours. A /very/ dry airmass will filter into the region late Monday through midweek, allowing for dry and seasonably mild conditions for at least the first half of next workweek. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will overspread our area from the west through mid morning ahead of a low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes. The better chance of showers and storms will then shift east of the TAF sites through late morning and early afternoon. Some river valley fog has developed at KLUK and this will lead to IFR or lower vsby restrictions at least for the next couple of hours there. There may be some improvement through the predawn hours as the thicker clouds and pcpn move back in. Otherwise, outside of shower and thunderstorm activity, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...JGL