726
FXUS61 KILN 160546
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
146 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure approaching the Ohio Valley from the west will
provide an increasing chance of showers and storms tonight.
Scattered storms will continue to be possible Friday through
the weekend. Dry and cooler weather will arrive next week as
broad high pressure builds into the Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Band of showers that developed near IND has entered our area,
so have increased pops to categorical for the next couple of
hours. Models show weakening as the showers move east into a
drier environment. Will monitor radar and obs and make further
adjustments as needed. Chance for thunder appears low due to
lack of instability. Lows in the upper 60s are expected by 6 am.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Main concern for the short term period on Friday through Friday
night will be storm coverage and intensity Friday afternoon.
With bulk shear values around 25 knots and MLCAPE of 1000-1500J,
storms that develop could be strong to severe. Main threat
looks to be damaging winds based on forecast DCAPE values.
However, there appears to be a lack in forcing to initiate
convection. Have held PoPs in the chance category for now and
will continue to monitor.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A somewhat anomalous weather pattern will be established for the
beginning of the long term period as a mid/upper level low/trof
deepens/digs into the ern Great Lakes/OH Vly region, yielding
broad/deep-layer cyclonic flow in the region and fairly impressive
negative height anomalies to go along with it. This will translate
to a rather unsettled pattern locally as the combination of typical
diurnally-driven summertime heating and LL moisture coinciding with
cooler temps aloft will generate some moderate to strong daytime
instby Saturday, perhaps lingering a bit into Sunday.

Subtle height falls will be ongoing during the day Saturday, with
enough forcing amidst a largely-uncapped environment to promote
development of SCT convection, likely focused near/S of the I-71
corridor during the afternoon into early evening. Latest guidance
suggests that some wraparound mid/upper level dry air may allow for
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies through the first part of the
day in these areas, supporting more robust daytime heating and
contributing to slightly stronger instby. From an ingredients
perspective, with moderate instby and sufficient deep-layer
(unidirectional) flow, certainly the potential for a few strong to
severe storms, with gusty/damaging winds and small hail, cannot be
ruled out Saturday. This would/could especially be the case in SW
OH, N KY, and central OH into NE KY where the greatest coverage of
afternoon/evening storms is expected to be.

Highs on Saturday may get quite warm, especially if sufficient early
day clearing materializes. Highs very well could get near 90
degrees, especially SE of I-71, with dewpoints still in the upper
60s to near 70 degrees. Overnight lows will remain near to slightly
above normal through this weekend, with overnight lows generally in
the mid 60s.

Scattered to numerous showers, and perhaps an ISO storm, will remain
in the fcst through Sunday, especially with some diurnally-driven
enhancement expected as the midlevel low/trof drifts SE more into
the region. Daytime highs will be quite a bit cooler on Sunday,
owing to extensive/expansive cloud cover and numerous afternoon
showers pinwheeling around the low center just to the NE of the ILN
FA. Temps should top out in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees, with
likely to categorical PoPs from SW to NE, respectively, across the
local area for the afternoon time period.

The potential for showers will persist into Monday morning near/SE
of I-71 as the main trof axis /finally/ pivots through the area,
yielding increasingly dry/clear conditions into the afternoon hours.
A /very/ dry airmass will filter into the region late Monday through
midweek, allowing for dry and seasonably mild conditions for at
least the first half of next workweek.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will overspread
our area from the west through mid morning ahead of a low
pressure system moving through the Great Lakes. The better
chance of showers and storms will then shift east of the TAF
sites through late morning and early afternoon. Some river
valley fog has developed at KLUK and this will lead to IFR or
lower vsby restrictions at least for the next couple of hours
there. There may be some improvement through the predawn hours
as the thicker clouds and pcpn move back in. Otherwise, outside
of shower and thunderstorm activity, VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JGL