899
FXUS61 KILN 161747
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
147 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system will shift slowly east
across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. This will
lead to occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms. High
pressure and a drier air mass will then build into the region
through the upcoming work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Forecast is on track as
of the morning update, with showers and a few rumbles of
thunder decreasing and shifting off to the east through midday.
Behind the departing precipitation, decreasing clouds are noted
on the latest METSAT imagery moving into the western reaches of
our CWA. This should allow diurnal heating to destabilize our
atmosphere. While we don`t have an obvious forcing mechanism to
produce widespread storms this afternoon, we do have some
enhanced winds aloft ahead of the low spinning over the Upper
Midwest. These winds will set us up with 30-35 knots of
effective bulk shear per HRRR mesoanalysis... to go along with
around 2000J of SBCAPE by late afternoon. CAMs aren`t overly
aggressive with storm coverage, so have opted to keep chance
PoPs through the day. Will continue to monitor the threat of a
few intense storms with potential for damaging winds based on
the factors discussed above.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As we lose the instability, expect pcpn to taper off through
the evening and into the overnight hours. As the upper level
low moves slowly east, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
increase through late morning and into the afternoon on
Saturday as we destabilize once again. Lows tonight will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s with highs on Saturday in the mid to
upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At the very beginning of the period on Saturday evening, a cold
front will become more enhanced over the CWA as H5 energy pivots
through the area. With what scattering of the clouds may happen in
the late day, the low level forcing and upper energy will combine
and potentially have the addition of some late day insolation if not
direct heating in spots. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
ramp up, most notably in southeast CWA. Behind the front at this
time, the I-71 corridor and swaths to the nw and se of it will only
have lower chances of rain, with a quite low chance in west central
Ohio. This rapid decrease in activity later in the evening will
quickly spread southeast, leaving just a few lingering showers south
of Chillicothe and in the Hocking Hills shortly after midnight.

Sunday will be in a similar situation with cold pool overturning,
combined with the crossing of the H5 low. The low will ultimately
weakens into an open trough if it hasen`t done so by the afternoon.
There does not appear to be any s/w maxima rounding the south end of
this trough, and the cold pool will only provide overturning,
entirely shutting off surface based instability. Showers seem to be
the better state of the expected weather, but ingredients still
exist to support disorganized convective elements that would produce
thunder. Expect this to be examined with finer detail provided in
future model runs.

Ahead of the front, Saturday night lows will remain warm in the mid
60s. Behind the front on Sunday, highs will only top out in the
upper 70s to near 80. Overnight lows in the 60-65 range may be a
touch on the warm side. If cloud cover drops off a little earlier,
some decreased wind overnight could see readings drop if conditions
result in a few hours of radiational cooling.

Northerly flow and then decreasing heights afterward will keep highs
in the 75-80 degree range through Wednesday, warming to 80 or a
little warmer on Thursday. Return flow Friday should see max temps
in the mid 50s. Overnight lows in a favorable radiation environment
will drop to the mid 50s Monday night and lower 50s Tuesday night.
An uptick Wednesday will bring them back to the mid 50s, and round
out the forecast with upper 50s Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Latest satellite imagery shows stable air across the region
behind the widespread showers from this morning. This is evident by
the presence of patchy stratus. Therefore, have decided to push
scattered storms to a bit later in the afternoon. In addition,
have included a few southwesterly gusts to near 20 knots based
on latest observations.

After dark, any storms should dissipate leading to a quiet
night. Could see some patchy fog in prone areas such as LUK and
ILN.

Main emphasis for storm development on Saturday appears to be
after 18Z, so have included in the extended CVG TAF for now.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...