712
FXUS61 KILN 161024
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
624 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system will shift slowly east
across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. This will
lead to occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms. High
pressure and a drier air mass will then build into the region
through the upcoming work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
An axis of isentropically enhanced showers and thunderstorms,
stretching from central Indiana into central Kentucky, is
lifting northeast toward our area early this morning. This is
moving into a more stable airmass currently across our area
though, so expect to see a weakening trend in these storms as
they move into our area over the next couple of hours.

Meanwhile, more widespread showers and thunderstorms across
Illinois will continue to pivot east toward our area through mid
morning. This is ahead of an upper level low moving across the
Great Lakes and its associated trough axis. Will go ahead and
ramp up pops across our west through mid morning to account for
this, with the better chance for pcpn then shifting across our
east through late morning into early afternoon.

As we head through the rest of the afternoon, temperatures will
push into the low to mid 80s. This should allow for some
additional destabilization through mid to late afternoon with
some additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm development.
With deep layer shear values nudging up through the afternoon
ahead of the approaching low, a few strong to severe storms
will be possible, with damaging wind the main threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As we lose the instability, expect pcpn to taper off through
the evening and into the overnight hours. As the upper level
low moves slowly east, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
increase through late morning and into the afternoon on
Saturday as we destabilize once again. Lows tonight will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s with highs on Saturday in the mid to
upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At the very beginning of the period on Saturday evening, a cold
front will become more enhanced over the CWA as H5 energy pivots
through the area. With what scattering of the clouds may happen in
the late day, the low level forcing and upper energy will combine
and potentially have the addition of some late day insolation if not
direct heating in spots. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
ramp up, most notably in southeast CWA. Behind the front at this
time, the I-71 corridor and swaths to the nw and se of it will only
have lower chances of rain, with a quite low chance in west central
Ohio. This rapid decrease in activity later in the evening will
quickly spread southeast, leaving just a few lingering showers south
of Chillicothe and in the Hocking Hills shortly after midnight.

Sunday will be in a similar situation with cold pool overturning,
combined with the crossing of the H5 low. The low will ultimately
weakens into an open trough if it hasen`t done so by the afternoon.
There does not appear to be any s/w maxima rounding the south end of
this trough, and the cold pool will only provide overturning,
entirely shutting off surface based instability. Showers seem to be
the better state of the expected weather, but ingredients still
exist to support disorganized convective elements that would produce
thunder. Expect this to be examined with finer detail provided in
future model runs.

Ahead of the front, Saturday night lows will remain warm in the mid
60s. Behind the front on Sunday, highs will only top out in the
upper 70s to near 80. Overnight lows in the 60-65 range may be a
touch on the warm side. If cloud cover drops off a little earlier,
some decreased wind overnight could see readings drop if conditions
result in a few hours of radiational cooling.

Northerly flow and then decreasing heights afterward will keep highs
in the 75-80 degree range through Wednesday, warming to 80 or a
little warmer on Thursday. Return flow Friday should see max temps
in the mid 50s. Overnight lows in a favorable radiation environment
will drop to the mid 50s Monday night and lower 50s Tuesday night.
An uptick Wednesday will bring them back to the mid 50s, and round
out the forecast with upper 50s Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will push east across the area
through mid morning. These storms will be capable of producing
some IFR vsby restrictions in the heavier showers. In the wake
of the morning storms, we will likely get into a lull in pcpn
from late morning into early afternoon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may then redevelop as we destabilize through mid
to late afternoon. Any thunderstorm activity should taper off
this evening as we lose the daytime heating with skies
becoming mostly clear overnight. Some areas of MVFR to locally
IFR br development will be possible later tonight, especially
at KLUK.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...JGL