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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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712 FXUS61 KILN 161024 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 624 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure system will shift slowly east across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. This will lead to occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure and a drier air mass will then build into the region through the upcoming work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... An axis of isentropically enhanced showers and thunderstorms, stretching from central Indiana into central Kentucky, is lifting northeast toward our area early this morning. This is moving into a more stable airmass currently across our area though, so expect to see a weakening trend in these storms as they move into our area over the next couple of hours. Meanwhile, more widespread showers and thunderstorms across Illinois will continue to pivot east toward our area through mid morning. This is ahead of an upper level low moving across the Great Lakes and its associated trough axis. Will go ahead and ramp up pops across our west through mid morning to account for this, with the better chance for pcpn then shifting across our east through late morning into early afternoon. As we head through the rest of the afternoon, temperatures will push into the low to mid 80s. This should allow for some additional destabilization through mid to late afternoon with some additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. With deep layer shear values nudging up through the afternoon ahead of the approaching low, a few strong to severe storms will be possible, with damaging wind the main threat. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... As we lose the instability, expect pcpn to taper off through the evening and into the overnight hours. As the upper level low moves slowly east, scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase through late morning and into the afternoon on Saturday as we destabilize once again. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with highs on Saturday in the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... At the very beginning of the period on Saturday evening, a cold front will become more enhanced over the CWA as H5 energy pivots through the area. With what scattering of the clouds may happen in the late day, the low level forcing and upper energy will combine and potentially have the addition of some late day insolation if not direct heating in spots. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to ramp up, most notably in southeast CWA. Behind the front at this time, the I-71 corridor and swaths to the nw and se of it will only have lower chances of rain, with a quite low chance in west central Ohio. This rapid decrease in activity later in the evening will quickly spread southeast, leaving just a few lingering showers south of Chillicothe and in the Hocking Hills shortly after midnight. Sunday will be in a similar situation with cold pool overturning, combined with the crossing of the H5 low. The low will ultimately weakens into an open trough if it hasen`t done so by the afternoon. There does not appear to be any s/w maxima rounding the south end of this trough, and the cold pool will only provide overturning, entirely shutting off surface based instability. Showers seem to be the better state of the expected weather, but ingredients still exist to support disorganized convective elements that would produce thunder. Expect this to be examined with finer detail provided in future model runs. Ahead of the front, Saturday night lows will remain warm in the mid 60s. Behind the front on Sunday, highs will only top out in the upper 70s to near 80. Overnight lows in the 60-65 range may be a touch on the warm side. If cloud cover drops off a little earlier, some decreased wind overnight could see readings drop if conditions result in a few hours of radiational cooling. Northerly flow and then decreasing heights afterward will keep highs in the 75-80 degree range through Wednesday, warming to 80 or a little warmer on Thursday. Return flow Friday should see max temps in the mid 50s. Overnight lows in a favorable radiation environment will drop to the mid 50s Monday night and lower 50s Tuesday night. An uptick Wednesday will bring them back to the mid 50s, and round out the forecast with upper 50s Thursday night. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms will push east across the area through mid morning. These storms will be capable of producing some IFR vsby restrictions in the heavier showers. In the wake of the morning storms, we will likely get into a lull in pcpn from late morning into early afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may then redevelop as we destabilize through mid to late afternoon. Any thunderstorm activity should taper off this evening as we lose the daytime heating with skies becoming mostly clear overnight. Some areas of MVFR to locally IFR br development will be possible later tonight, especially at KLUK. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...JGL