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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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899 FXUS61 KILN 161747 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 147 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure system will shift slowly east across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. This will lead to occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure and a drier air mass will then build into the region through the upcoming work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Forecast is on track as of the morning update, with showers and a few rumbles of thunder decreasing and shifting off to the east through midday. Behind the departing precipitation, decreasing clouds are noted on the latest METSAT imagery moving into the western reaches of our CWA. This should allow diurnal heating to destabilize our atmosphere. While we don`t have an obvious forcing mechanism to produce widespread storms this afternoon, we do have some enhanced winds aloft ahead of the low spinning over the Upper Midwest. These winds will set us up with 30-35 knots of effective bulk shear per HRRR mesoanalysis... to go along with around 2000J of SBCAPE by late afternoon. CAMs aren`t overly aggressive with storm coverage, so have opted to keep chance PoPs through the day. Will continue to monitor the threat of a few intense storms with potential for damaging winds based on the factors discussed above. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... As we lose the instability, expect pcpn to taper off through the evening and into the overnight hours. As the upper level low moves slowly east, scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase through late morning and into the afternoon on Saturday as we destabilize once again. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with highs on Saturday in the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... At the very beginning of the period on Saturday evening, a cold front will become more enhanced over the CWA as H5 energy pivots through the area. With what scattering of the clouds may happen in the late day, the low level forcing and upper energy will combine and potentially have the addition of some late day insolation if not direct heating in spots. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to ramp up, most notably in southeast CWA. Behind the front at this time, the I-71 corridor and swaths to the nw and se of it will only have lower chances of rain, with a quite low chance in west central Ohio. This rapid decrease in activity later in the evening will quickly spread southeast, leaving just a few lingering showers south of Chillicothe and in the Hocking Hills shortly after midnight. Sunday will be in a similar situation with cold pool overturning, combined with the crossing of the H5 low. The low will ultimately weakens into an open trough if it hasen`t done so by the afternoon. There does not appear to be any s/w maxima rounding the south end of this trough, and the cold pool will only provide overturning, entirely shutting off surface based instability. Showers seem to be the better state of the expected weather, but ingredients still exist to support disorganized convective elements that would produce thunder. Expect this to be examined with finer detail provided in future model runs. Ahead of the front, Saturday night lows will remain warm in the mid 60s. Behind the front on Sunday, highs will only top out in the upper 70s to near 80. Overnight lows in the 60-65 range may be a touch on the warm side. If cloud cover drops off a little earlier, some decreased wind overnight could see readings drop if conditions result in a few hours of radiational cooling. Northerly flow and then decreasing heights afterward will keep highs in the 75-80 degree range through Wednesday, warming to 80 or a little warmer on Thursday. Return flow Friday should see max temps in the mid 50s. Overnight lows in a favorable radiation environment will drop to the mid 50s Monday night and lower 50s Tuesday night. An uptick Wednesday will bring them back to the mid 50s, and round out the forecast with upper 50s Thursday night. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Latest satellite imagery shows stable air across the region behind the widespread showers from this morning. This is evident by the presence of patchy stratus. Therefore, have decided to push scattered storms to a bit later in the afternoon. In addition, have included a few southwesterly gusts to near 20 knots based on latest observations. After dark, any storms should dissipate leading to a quiet night. Could see some patchy fog in prone areas such as LUK and ILN. Main emphasis for storm development on Saturday appears to be after 18Z, so have included in the extended CVG TAF for now. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...