751
FXUS61 KILN 161945
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
345 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system will shift slowly east
across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. This will
lead to occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms. High
pressure and a drier air mass will then build into the region
through the upcoming work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Large vertically stacked low over the arrowhead of Minnesota
will slowly wobble to the east and southeast through the near
term. Behind this morning`s departing shortwave, isolated to
scattered storms will continue into the early evening hours
before decreasing in coverage and intensity late. This will lead
to a quiet night. Winds should slacken, allowing for patchy fog
in prone valleys and rural areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The mid-level low will continue to wobble slowly east causing
cyclonic/convergent low-level flow over the Ohio Valley on
Saturday. Plenty of morning sunshine along with lingering low-
level moisture will lead to SBCAPE above 2000J by the afternoon
hours, with the highest values likely southeast of Interstate
71 along the axis of deepest moisture. While effective bulk
shear will not be that impressive, we should see some pretty
tall cores due to the increase in forcing and instability.
Therefore, we will need to watch for scattered storms containing
borderline hail and damaging wind gusts.

The focus of the convection will continue to move off to the
east Saturday night, leading to quieter conditions returning
late. Decreasing clouds allow temperatures to cool into the
lower to middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A somewhat anomalous weather pattern will be established for the
beginning of the long term period as a mid/upper level low/trof
deepens/digs into the ern Great Lakes/OH Vly region, yielding
broad/deep-layer cyclonic flow in the region and fairly impressive
negative height anomalies to go along with it. This will translate
to a rather unsettled pattern locally Sunday and again early Monday
as the combination of typical diurnally-driven summertime heating
and LL moisture coinciding with cooler temps aloft will generate
numerous SHRA, with perhaps a rumble of thunder, during the
afternoon into early evening Sunday.

Daytime highs will be quite a bit cooler on Sunday, owing to
extensive/expansive cloud cover and numerous afternoon SHRA
pinwheeling around the low center just to the NE of the ILN FA.
Temps should top out in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees, with
likely to categorical PoPs from SW to NE, respectively, across the
local area for the afternoon time period. Sunday will likely be one
of those days where it rains on-and-off several times in any one
location over the course of the daytime, but perhaps not amounting
to more than a third to half of an inch in total.

The potential for showers will persist into Monday morning near/SE
of I-71 as the main trof axis /finally/ pivots through the area,
yielding increasingly dry/clear conditions into the afternoon hours
from NW to SE. A /very/ dry airmass will filter into the region late
Monday and likely settle into the OH Vly through the entirety of
next workweek, allowing for dry and seasonably mild conditions for
at least the first half of next workweek. In fact, there are
indications for several overnights where temperatures will likely
dip into the lower 50s, or even upper 40s in some
rural/sheltered/low-lying locales. This would especially be the case
Tue/Wed/Thu AMs.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Latest satellite imagery shows stable air across the region
behind the widespread showers from this morning. This is evident by
the presence of patchy stratus. Therefore, have decided to push
scattered storms to a bit later in the afternoon. In addition,
have included a few southwesterly gusts to near 20 knots based
on latest observations.

After dark, any storms should dissipate leading to a quiet
night. Could see some patchy fog in prone areas such as LUK and
ILN.

Main emphasis for storm development on Saturday appears to be
after 18Z, so have included in the extended CVG TAF for now.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...