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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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751 FXUS61 KILN 161945 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 345 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure system will shift slowly east across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. This will lead to occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure and a drier air mass will then build into the region through the upcoming work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Large vertically stacked low over the arrowhead of Minnesota will slowly wobble to the east and southeast through the near term. Behind this morning`s departing shortwave, isolated to scattered storms will continue into the early evening hours before decreasing in coverage and intensity late. This will lead to a quiet night. Winds should slacken, allowing for patchy fog in prone valleys and rural areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The mid-level low will continue to wobble slowly east causing cyclonic/convergent low-level flow over the Ohio Valley on Saturday. Plenty of morning sunshine along with lingering low- level moisture will lead to SBCAPE above 2000J by the afternoon hours, with the highest values likely southeast of Interstate 71 along the axis of deepest moisture. While effective bulk shear will not be that impressive, we should see some pretty tall cores due to the increase in forcing and instability. Therefore, we will need to watch for scattered storms containing borderline hail and damaging wind gusts. The focus of the convection will continue to move off to the east Saturday night, leading to quieter conditions returning late. Decreasing clouds allow temperatures to cool into the lower to middle 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A somewhat anomalous weather pattern will be established for the beginning of the long term period as a mid/upper level low/trof deepens/digs into the ern Great Lakes/OH Vly region, yielding broad/deep-layer cyclonic flow in the region and fairly impressive negative height anomalies to go along with it. This will translate to a rather unsettled pattern locally Sunday and again early Monday as the combination of typical diurnally-driven summertime heating and LL moisture coinciding with cooler temps aloft will generate numerous SHRA, with perhaps a rumble of thunder, during the afternoon into early evening Sunday. Daytime highs will be quite a bit cooler on Sunday, owing to extensive/expansive cloud cover and numerous afternoon SHRA pinwheeling around the low center just to the NE of the ILN FA. Temps should top out in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees, with likely to categorical PoPs from SW to NE, respectively, across the local area for the afternoon time period. Sunday will likely be one of those days where it rains on-and-off several times in any one location over the course of the daytime, but perhaps not amounting to more than a third to half of an inch in total. The potential for showers will persist into Monday morning near/SE of I-71 as the main trof axis /finally/ pivots through the area, yielding increasingly dry/clear conditions into the afternoon hours from NW to SE. A /very/ dry airmass will filter into the region late Monday and likely settle into the OH Vly through the entirety of next workweek, allowing for dry and seasonably mild conditions for at least the first half of next workweek. In fact, there are indications for several overnights where temperatures will likely dip into the lower 50s, or even upper 40s in some rural/sheltered/low-lying locales. This would especially be the case Tue/Wed/Thu AMs. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Latest satellite imagery shows stable air across the region behind the widespread showers from this morning. This is evident by the presence of patchy stratus. Therefore, have decided to push scattered storms to a bit later in the afternoon. In addition, have included a few southwesterly gusts to near 20 knots based on latest observations. After dark, any storms should dissipate leading to a quiet night. Could see some patchy fog in prone areas such as LUK and ILN. Main emphasis for storm development on Saturday appears to be after 18Z, so have included in the extended CVG TAF for now. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...