Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
582 FXUS61 KILN 090513 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 113 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible each day through the weekend particularly in the afternoons and evenings. Temperatures remain close to seasonal averages. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Tranquil conditions remain in place through the pre-dawn hours with only some upper/mid level clouds progressing by. Warm southerly flow persists ahead of an approaching cold front and upper level trough to the northwest. For today, PWATs increase into the afternoon with locations south of I-70 getting into the best moisture. The aforementioned upper level trough and front should help spawn scattered showers and thunderstorms in the warm, moist environment by around 3pm. The best coverage is likely to be southeast of I-71 which is where the deepest moisture is. Severe parameters are marginal at best so only isolated strong to severe wind gust potential is expected. Quicker storm motions should limit the flood threat to very isolated locations. Forecast highs are in the middle 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... For tonight, a trough axis will be parked over the Ohio Valley. Although diurnal convection is forecast to be waning, abundant low level moisture may still remain. Considering the calm winds and saturation in the trough axis, low clouds and fog are possible overnight. Forecast lows are in the upper 60s to near 70. On Thursday, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible once again with a washed out front over the area and upper level troughing in place. Storm motions could be a little slower on Thursday, but lower PWATs should hopefully mitigate the flooding threat. However, some drier air in the mid levels supports a bit more DCAPE and an isolated downdraft damaging wind potential. Forecast highs are once again in the middle 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weak zonal flow to start the period will back and strengthen a bit as a short wave lifting out of the central Plains into the Great Lakes gets absorbed into a deeper trough moving from the northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes. While upper forcing will remain north of the region, it will push a cold front through the area over the weekend. Overall, differences within the ensemble suite have decreased. So solutions are starting to converge on the idea of convection developing west of the region on Saturday and possibly moving in later in the day before weakening. And then convection redeveloping on Sunday, possibly starting in eastern areas but also possibly already east of the forecast area. As the trough to the north of the area lifts out, heights will rise as the high over the Gulf Coast expands northward. On the northern periphery of the high there will still be some weak westerlies over the region and so there could be some scattered diurnal convection both Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be above normal through the period, although not excessively so, with only a slight dip Sunday and Sunday night in the wake of the front. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are being observed to start the TAF period early this morning. VFR conditions may persist at most sites since mid and upper level clouds are inhibiting BR/FG formation in the lower levels. Any visibility reductions that do develop should mix out by around 1300z. For this afternoon and evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. Any convective activity should fade away after 0000z Thursday. For tonight, ceiling and visibility restrictions are moderately likely as conditions may end up being favorable for BR/FG. Winds remain light and variable through 1300z. For today, winds increase out of the southwest before fading off once again tonight. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible each day through at least Sunday, mainly in the afternoon and evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Campbell SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM... AVIATION...Campbell