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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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492 FXUS61 KILN 170549 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 149 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure system will shift slowly east across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. This will lead to occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure and a drier air mass will then build into the region through the upcoming work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Upper low continues to shift eastward, providing weak forcing to maintain some of these showers into the early overnight before dissipating. Once rain chances end tonight, some of the low clouds will dissolve as well. A very saturated air mass remains in place, which combined with the clearing skies and light winds, patchy fog will become a possibility, especially near the river valleys. Mild overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s are forecast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... The mid-level low will continue to wobble slowly east causing cyclonic/convergent low-level flow over the Ohio Valley on Saturday. Plenty of morning sunshine along with lingering low- level moisture will lead to SBCAPE above 2000J by the afternoon hours, with the highest values likely southeast of Interstate 71 along the axis of deepest moisture. While effective bulk shear will not be that impressive, we should see some pretty tall cores due to the increase in forcing and instability. Therefore, we will need to watch for scattered storms containing borderline hail and damaging wind gusts. The focus of the convection will continue to move off to the east Saturday night, leading to quieter conditions returning late. Decreasing clouds allow temperatures to cool into the lower to middle 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A somewhat anomalous weather pattern will be established for the beginning of the long term period as a mid/upper level low/trof deepens/digs into the ern Great Lakes/OH Vly region, yielding broad/deep-layer cyclonic flow in the region and fairly impressive negative height anomalies to go along with it. This will translate to a rather unsettled pattern locally Sunday and again early Monday as the combination of typical diurnally-driven summertime heating and LL moisture coinciding with cooler temps aloft will generate numerous SHRA, with perhaps a rumble of thunder, during the afternoon into early evening Sunday. Daytime highs will be quite a bit cooler on Sunday, owing to extensive/expansive cloud cover and numerous afternoon SHRA pinwheeling around the low center just to the NE of the ILN FA. Temps should top out in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees, with likely to categorical PoPs from SW to NE, respectively, across the local area for the afternoon time period. Sunday will likely be one of those days where it rains on-and-off several times in any one location over the course of the daytime, but perhaps not amounting to more than a third to half of an inch in total. The potential for showers will persist into Monday morning near/SE of I-71 as the main trof axis /finally/ pivots through the area, yielding increasingly dry/clear conditions into the afternoon hours from NW to SE. A /very/ dry airmass will filter into the region late Monday and likely settle into the OH Vly through the entirety of next workweek, allowing for dry and seasonably mild conditions for at least the first half of next workweek. In fact, there are indications for several overnights where temperatures will likely dip into the lower 50s, or even upper 40s in some rural/sheltered/low-lying locales. This would especially be the case Tue/Wed/Thu AMs. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A line of showers and thunderstorms moving across central Indiana this morning will continue to push east toward our area over the next couple of hours. This is moving into a less favorable environment, so expect to see an overall weakening trend with these storms. Nonetheless, suppose they could hold together into at least northwest portions of our area, so will allow for a couple hour period of a VCSH at KDAY to account for this. Elsewhere across our area, some MVFR br has been developing, with some IFR to LIFR vsby restrictions in some of the river valleys. This will persist through daybreak before the vsbys begin to improve. Otherwise, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to become more numerous as we destabilize this afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall and brief IFR vsbys will be possible with the afternoon storms. This activity will taper off as we head into this evening with partial clearing developing. However, some MVFR to IFR cigs and perhaps some areas of MVFR br will develop late tonight into early Sunday morning. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...Clark SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...JGL