Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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175 FXUS62 KILM 122003 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 403 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A front stalled nearby to the west will keep the weather unsettled through Saturday. The weather will then turn quite hot again for most of next week with diminishing rain chances and coverage. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... A stalled frontal boundary was located just west of the CWA at present with the the greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms near this boundary. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms were developing over land and streaming in from the Atlantic amidst warm advection of moderately unstable air with minimal capping aloft. Lifting over a remnant cold pool seems to be driving development over the middle of our CWA while microscale confluence zones and perhaps weak mid-level impulses are helping to drive activity offshore. The front is expected to drift eastward tonight and position itself just west of the Cape Fear area by late tonight. Activity should tend to fall apart going into this evening across the Pee Dee region as heating stops and earlier storms stabilize the air mass. Further south and east, from the Grand Strand northeastward through the Cape Fear region, scattered showers and thunderstorms should continue to spread in from the ocean through much or all of the night and we may see a focused corridor of heavy showers and storms develop near and east of the front late tonight into tomorrow morning. Locally very heavy rainfall remains possible with any shower or storm and isolated flash flooding may take place where these train over the same location for a couple hours. Temperatures currently vary widely across the area due to the convection, but overnight lows should fall into the mid-upper 70s. Mist and low clouds are expected to develop across the interior Pee Dee, especially if cloud cover thins as expected. Daytime highs tomorrow will be modulated by convection, but it appears low 90s in the Pee Dee region and mid-upper 80s in the Cape Fear region are expected. && .SHORT TERM/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The short term will be characterized by the departure of the deep slug of coastal moisture that has been in place for the last few days. The frontal boundary will still be hanging out very close to the western part of the CWA albeit in a much weakened state. There will still likely be numerous outflow and differential heating boundaries just about everywhere so POPs 40-50 percent mainly during peak heating. A Heat Advisory will be needed Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Monday and Tuesday will bring a lull in rain chances and coverage as mid level ridging and the heat it brings dominate the forecast. A Heat Advisory will be needed both days. As the mid level ridge weakens slightly on Wednesday rain chances/coverage may return to near normal values but the heat will remain and expect a fourth consecutive Heat Advisory. Rain chances could increase Thursday and Friday and the heat may abate to sub-advisory levels as a front approaches. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Confidence is lower than normal for the first 24 hours, but predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the afternoon and this evening with transient MVFR cigs at times or even brief IFR vis beneath heavy showers and storms. Additional clusters of showers and isolated storms are developing over land and approaching from the south and these may impact the terminals directly through this afternoon, but again, their impacts should be short-lived. Tonight, excess moisture and light or calm winds brings a heightened risk for MVFR mist and IFR to LIFR cigs, particularly inland, where convection should dissipate and eventually yield some clearing. Near the coast, showers and isolated storms should remain possible through the night, but questions remain as to whether a focused band can organize which would bring longer duration impacts to any one terminal. Otherwise, winds should remain elevated and thus preclude MVFR mist from developing. Shower and storms chances look to remain nearer to the coast tomorrow morning, continuing the transient MVFR to IFR restriction risk, while VFR conditions are expected at inland terminals. Extended Outlook... Brief MVFR to IFR restrictions remain possible in heavy showers and storms on Saturday before high pressure brings a reduction in the shower/storm risk late in the day. For Saturday night onward, VFR should dominate outside of early morning fog/low cigs. && .MARINE... Through Saturday... The pressure gradient between a stalled front over land and offshore Bermuda high pressure which has resulted in breezy south winds of around 15-20 kts today is expected to weaken tonight, but will keep a generally southerly flow in place through the period. Speeds should subside to around 10-15 kts tonight and remain in that range tomorrow, with gusts up to 20 kts. Wave heights will gradually subside below SCA levels (6 ft) tonight and continue falling to 3-4 ft by late tomorrow. The main contributing wave group this evening through tonight is a southeasterly 7-8 sec swell while a 2-3 ft southerly wind wave at around 6 sec is forecast to develop around Cape Fear tomorrow. Saturday night through Wednesday... Frontal boundary and its associated surface trough stalled inland at the start of the period. This paired with Bermuda High to bring SW winds in the 10-15kt range with a few gusts to 20. Swell energy will remain offshore for the most part. The front will gradually wash out but the trough will remain as will the offshore ridge. As is so often the case in July winds and seas will not deviate much at all. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for SCZ017-024-033-054- 058-059. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...ABW SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...ABW MARINE...ILM