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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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735 FXUS63 KICT 171945 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 245 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid across southern KS this afternoon and Sunday - Storms chances (20-40%) return Sunday-Sunday night with the best potential across eastern KS - Seasonal temperatures for much of next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 As of 230 PM Saturday afternoon, another hot and humid afternoon was ongoing across much of the area with temperatures in the 90s and dew points in the mid 70s. The combination of the 2 was contributing to heat index values around 100 degrees. Heat index values will continue to creep towards 105 through 5 or 6 PM. An area of surface high pressure across the Dakotas will slide south tonight, advecting slightly drier air into portions of eastern/northern KS. Unfortunately, portions of south-central KS are likely to see dew points remain in the 70s throughout Sunday afternoon with temperatures up to 100. As a result, another Heat Advisory has been hoisted for Sunday afternoon as heat index values near 105. In addition, a few showers and storms are possible late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night as a midlevel shortwave trough, currently over UT, rounds the ridge and traverses portions of eastern KS. A strong storm cannot be ruled with elevated instability up to 1000 J/kg and effective shear near 30 kt. The surface high pressure will influence the entire area Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday with highs in the 80s. The next chance for showers and storms arrives late Monday into Tuesday as another midlevel shortwave trough emerges across the central High Plains and moves across the Heartland. Otherwise, the midlevel ridge axis will expand eastward for the second half of next week, shunting the best rain chances north and east of the forecast area and returning temperatures to the 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. The main issue will be the higher temperatures which will create some density altitude issues for some airframes. This will continue through about 02Z tonight. After that time, light and variable winds will dominate the region for the remainder of the TAF period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ067-082-083- 091>093-098>100. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ067-082-083- 091>093. && $$ DISCUSSION...BRF AVIATION...ELM