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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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157 FXUS63 KICT 120708 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 208 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight with locally heavy rain possible. - Hot and humid conditions are expected to return with triple digit heat indices peaking in the 105+ degree range by Wed. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 We continue to see a pool of high PWATs over much of OK extending into southern Kansas. A nocturnal LLJ was nosing into northern OK and southern Kansas during the late night/early morning hours with showers and thunderstorms ongoing. As the LLJ veers and weakens early in the period today the showers and storms are expected to wane as we move through the morning hours. Efficient rainfall is anticipated and with training cells, some pockets of locally heavy rain will remain possible over southern Kansas through 13-15Z before the activity diminishes and drifts southeast away from the area. With easterly upslope winds today, temperatures were trended downward slightly but with dewpoint temperatures expected to rise into the low to mid 70s, heat indices may climb above the century mark, especially over southern KS. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains of eastern Colorado late this afternoon and evening. This activity is progged to propagate downstream late this evening and tonight impacting the Central Plains during the overnight hours. The LLJ is progged to focus further north compared to the past couple of nights which should set us up for a round of showers and thunderstorms. There remains some concern further south across southern KS where capping concerns could limit storm activity. We continue to see support for efficient rainfall with high PWATs over 2 inches which are near the daily max for KTOP. We may see a wide range of temperatures across the area on Tuesday, especially if convection lingers in eastern KS allowing an outflow boundary to bisect our forecast area during the day on Tuesday. Those in south central KS will likely see above normal temperatures return with highs in the mid and upper 90s while parts of southeast KS struggle to reach the mid 80s. The mid/upper ridge across the Southern Plains is progged to amplify late Tue into Wed. Breezy south/southwest winds may help boost temperatures into the mid and upper 90s in many areas on Wed with some locations topping the century mark. Heat indices around 105 or higher will be common. A shortwave trough emerging from the Rockies late on Wed will break down the mid/upper ridge and bring another round of showers and storms to the area Wed night- Thu. A frontal passage on Thu will also usher in more seasonable air with highs in the low to mid 90s anticipated. Fri-Sun...The mid/upper ridge is progged to amplify once again across the central CONUS bringing rising heights/increasing thickness and rising temperatures for late in the week and into the weekend. A rogue storm or two may remain possible but widespread wetting rains appear unlikely at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop across portions of south-central and southeast Kansas early this morning, although coverage continues to be quite isolated. However, this activity may impact TAF sites like KHUT, KICT, and KCNU as well as surrounding areas. The main concern through about 12Z will be brief heavy rainfall; however, a couple storms producing small hail and gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Additionally, MVFR to IFR vis and cig cats are expected across portions of central Kansas this morning. VFR conditions should resume area-wide by 18Z this afternoon. Towards the end of the TAF period, storm chances will be on the increase once again across much of the area. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWM AVIATION...JC