601
FXUS63 KICT 121723
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1223 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
  tonight with locally heavy rain possible.

- Hot and humid conditions are expected to return with triple
  digit heat indices peaking in the 105+ degree range by Wed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024


We continue to see a pool of high PWATs over much of OK extending
into southern Kansas. A nocturnal LLJ was nosing into northern OK
and southern Kansas during the late night/early morning hours with
showers and thunderstorms ongoing. As the LLJ veers and weakens
early in the period today the showers and storms are expected to
wane as we move through the morning hours. Efficient rainfall is
anticipated and with training cells, some pockets of locally heavy
rain will remain possible over southern Kansas through 13-15Z before
the activity diminishes and drifts southeast away from the area.
With easterly upslope winds today, temperatures were trended
downward slightly but with dewpoint temperatures expected to
rise into the low to mid 70s, heat indices may climb above the
century mark, especially over southern KS.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High
Plains of eastern Colorado late this afternoon and evening. This
activity is progged to propagate downstream late this evening and
tonight impacting the Central Plains during the overnight hours. The
LLJ is progged to focus further north compared to the past
couple of nights which should set us up for a round of showers
and thunderstorms. There remains some concern further south
across southern KS where capping concerns could limit storm
activity. We continue to see support for efficient rainfall with
high PWATs over 2 inches which are near the daily max for KTOP.

We may see a wide range of temperatures across the area on Tuesday,
especially if convection lingers in eastern KS allowing an outflow
boundary to bisect our forecast area during the day on Tuesday.
Those in south central KS will likely see above normal temperatures
return with highs in the mid and upper 90s while parts of southeast
KS struggle to reach the mid 80s.

The mid/upper ridge across the Southern Plains is progged to amplify
late Tue into Wed. Breezy south/southwest winds may help boost
temperatures into the mid and upper 90s in many areas on Wed with
some locations topping the century mark. Heat indices around 105
or higher will be common. A shortwave trough emerging from the
Rockies late on Wed will break down the mid/upper ridge and
bring another round of showers and storms to the area Wed night-
Thu. A frontal passage on Thu will also usher in more seasonable
air with highs in the low to mid 90s anticipated.

Fri-Sun...The mid/upper ridge is progged to amplify once again across
the central CONUS bringing rising heights/increasing thickness
and rising temperatures for late in the week and into the
weekend. A rogue storm or two may remain possible but widespread
wetting rains appear unlikely at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Lingering mainly MVFR cigs will affect central and part of south
central Kansas through mid-afternoon. There is higher confidence
on a mesoscale convective complex to move eastward across
central Kansas later tonight with occasional lower vsbys/cigs
into MVFR (high confidence) category and brief IFR (lower
confidence) category. The activity is expected to be more
widely scattered the further south you go in south south central
and southeast Kansas toward dawn, so opted to forego tempo tsra
at KICT and KCNU for now.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...KED