735
FXUS63 KICT 171945
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
245 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid across southern KS this afternoon and Sunday

- Storms chances (20-40%) return Sunday-Sunday night with the best
  potential across eastern KS

- Seasonal temperatures for much of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

As of 230 PM Saturday afternoon, another hot and humid afternoon was
ongoing across much of the area with temperatures in the 90s and dew
points in the mid 70s. The combination of the 2 was
contributing to heat index values around 100 degrees. Heat index
values will continue to creep towards 105 through 5 or 6 PM. An
area of surface high pressure across the Dakotas will slide
south tonight, advecting slightly drier air into portions of
eastern/northern KS. Unfortunately, portions of south-central KS
are likely to see dew points remain in the 70s throughout
Sunday afternoon with temperatures up to 100. As a result,
another Heat Advisory has been hoisted for Sunday afternoon as
heat index values near 105. In addition, a few showers and
storms are possible late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night
as a midlevel shortwave trough, currently over UT, rounds the
ridge and traverses portions of eastern KS. A strong storm
cannot be ruled with elevated instability up to 1000 J/kg and
effective shear near 30 kt. The surface high pressure will
influence the entire area Monday, Tuesday, and possibly
Wednesday with highs in the 80s.

The next chance for showers and storms arrives late Monday into
Tuesday as another midlevel shortwave trough emerges across the
central High Plains and moves across the Heartland. Otherwise, the
midlevel ridge axis will expand eastward for the second half of next
week, shunting the best rain chances north and east of the forecast
area and returning temperatures to the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. The main
issue will be the higher temperatures which will create some
density altitude issues for some airframes. This will continue
through about 02Z tonight. After that time, light and variable
winds will dominate the region for the remainder of the TAF
period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ067-082-083-
091>093-098>100.
Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ067-082-083-
091>093.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...ELM