592
FXUS63 KICT 122348
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
648 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and storms tonight, with highest certainty
  of coverage lying north of US-50.

- Warm to near-dangerous heat Tuesday and Wednesday, especially
  along the Kansas-Oklahoma border.

- Showers and storms possible Thursday morning and again
  Friday/Saturday nights, but coverage uncertain at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Water vapor imagery indicates an upper ridge setting up over
the High Plains as a deep trough is situated just off the California
coast. Surface analysis reveals a stationary front draped from west
to east across Kansas as a surface low sits over the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles.

PRECIPITATION... An upper-level perturbation is expected to make its
way across the Central Plains later tonight into early Tuesday
morning, bringing with it chances for scattered showers and storms.
The latest CAM guidance suggests coverage mainly along and north of
US Hwy 50 beginning after midnight in central KS and pushing
eastward, with a handful of showers potentially building
southward toward the Kansas-Oklahoma border. Respectable
elevated instability and deep shear (~1500 J/kg and 35-45 kts
respectively) may allow for some stronger storms to produce up
to nickel-sized hail and brief gusty winds up to 50 mph, but not
looking for widespread severe weather with this latest system.

Medium-range deterministic models agree on a deeper upper-level
disturbance reaching the Central Plains late Wednesday into early
Thursday. This will bring with it a cold front that is expected to
pass through Kansas Thursday morning and bring additional chances
for showers and storms to central and south-central portions of the
state. As with the latest system, this activity is not expected to
be severe, but nonetheless should bring some much-needed
precipitation to the region. Additionally, slight chances for
showers will return Friday and Saturday night, but most of the area
should stay dry through the weekend.

TEMPERATURES... A wide range of high temperatures will be possible
across the forecast area tomorrow depending on the extent and
duration of precipitation. Central and south-central Kansas should
see highs near and above normal, while areas along and east of the
Flint Hills may struggle to make it into the low 80s in the
afternoon.

The upper-level ridge is expected to strengthen
tomorrow into Wednesday, bringing near- to above-average
temperatures midweek to central and south-central Kansas. With
dewpoints near and above 70, heat indices approaching 105 degrees
will be possible especially along the Kansas-Oklahoma border. Due to
uncertainty regarding the southward extent of precipitation and
subsequent cloud cover, will hold off on issuing heat headlines for
now and defer to tonight`s shift. Otherwise, look for normal
summertime high temperatures to prevail through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

VFR ceilings will prevail this evening with light winds mainly out
of the east. A complex of thunderstorms is expected to move
through central Kansas early tomorrow morning bringing
thunderstorms and lower ceilings to RSL, GBD, SLN, and HUT
prior to sunrise. Confidence on thunderstorm coverage farther
south remains more uncertain but there is at least a 30% chance
that ICT will see thunderstorms Tuesday morning. With these
thunderstorms, ceilings are expected to drop into the MVFR
range and could drop into the IFR range for short periods of
time during the heaviest rainfall. These lower ceilings will
dissipate by mid to late Tuesday morning with VFR and dry
conditions expected for Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...WI