033
FXUS63 KICT 131130
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
630 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and storms with heavy rain through the
  morning hours today.

- Hot and humid air returning today and Wed especially across
  parts of south central KS near the OK state line with heat
  indices near 105. A heat advisory is in effect this afternoon
  for parts of south central Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

An MCS was ongoing across central Kansas early this morning. This
activity is expected to propagate eastward/southeastward
through the morning hours. High PWATs and deep warm layer cloud
depths will support efficient rainfall and with training cells
we could see some localized flooding concerns as we move
through the morning hours today.

We expect to see a sharp temperature gradient materialize with highs
ranging from the 70s and 80s in northern Kansas to near 100 in parts
of south central KS near the Oklahoma state line. With dewpoint
temperatures hovering in the low/mid 70s we could see heat indices
around 105 in parts of south central Kansas and a heat advisory will
be issued for a part of south central Kansas this afternoon.

Another complex of storms will be possible tonight but it looks like
most if not all of the focus will remain north and east of our
forecast area. As a shortwave trough emerges from the Rockies on
Wed, sfc low pressure will bisect Kansas allowing a
southwesterly winds to materialize. This may result in more
vigorous mixing and lower dewpoints but with highs in the upper
90s, we could see heat indices in the 105 range once again.
Confidence in the details remains too low to issue a heat
advisory at this time.

Maintained some mid pops Wed night into Thur across much of the area
as a weak or diffuse frontal boundary boundary tries to bisect the
area. This front may usher in more seasonable air but it may
hang up in far southeast KS providing a focus for afternoon
showers and storms once again.

The mid/upper ridge is progged to amplify Fri-Mon resulting in
mostly dry weather conditions and rising temperatures once
again. A rogue storm or two will be hard to rule out through the
period but most locations are expected to remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

An MCS continues to track ESE across southeast KS this morning.
Locally heavy rain may impact KCNU and much of southeast KS as
this complex moves over the region this morning. MVFR and some
transient IFR under the heavier showers and storms can be
expected with gusty winds around 30 knots or less. In the wake
of the storms, we may see an area of stratus develop along the
I-70 corridor but confidence in how widespread this will become
remains fairly low. With increasing influence from the ridge of
high pressure to our south, VFR is expected to prevail for most
locations by mid-afternoon or sooner. A developing LLJ may
bring some LLWS to area TAFs tonight but the storm activity is
expected to remain north of the area tonight. Winds will
gradually become southeasterly and breezy this afternoon and
evening.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM