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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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033 FXUS63 KICT 131130 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 630 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for showers and storms with heavy rain through the morning hours today. - Hot and humid air returning today and Wed especially across parts of south central KS near the OK state line with heat indices near 105. A heat advisory is in effect this afternoon for parts of south central Kansas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 An MCS was ongoing across central Kansas early this morning. This activity is expected to propagate eastward/southeastward through the morning hours. High PWATs and deep warm layer cloud depths will support efficient rainfall and with training cells we could see some localized flooding concerns as we move through the morning hours today. We expect to see a sharp temperature gradient materialize with highs ranging from the 70s and 80s in northern Kansas to near 100 in parts of south central KS near the Oklahoma state line. With dewpoint temperatures hovering in the low/mid 70s we could see heat indices around 105 in parts of south central Kansas and a heat advisory will be issued for a part of south central Kansas this afternoon. Another complex of storms will be possible tonight but it looks like most if not all of the focus will remain north and east of our forecast area. As a shortwave trough emerges from the Rockies on Wed, sfc low pressure will bisect Kansas allowing a southwesterly winds to materialize. This may result in more vigorous mixing and lower dewpoints but with highs in the upper 90s, we could see heat indices in the 105 range once again. Confidence in the details remains too low to issue a heat advisory at this time. Maintained some mid pops Wed night into Thur across much of the area as a weak or diffuse frontal boundary boundary tries to bisect the area. This front may usher in more seasonable air but it may hang up in far southeast KS providing a focus for afternoon showers and storms once again. The mid/upper ridge is progged to amplify Fri-Mon resulting in mostly dry weather conditions and rising temperatures once again. A rogue storm or two will be hard to rule out through the period but most locations are expected to remain dry. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 An MCS continues to track ESE across southeast KS this morning. Locally heavy rain may impact KCNU and much of southeast KS as this complex moves over the region this morning. MVFR and some transient IFR under the heavier showers and storms can be expected with gusty winds around 30 knots or less. In the wake of the storms, we may see an area of stratus develop along the I-70 corridor but confidence in how widespread this will become remains fairly low. With increasing influence from the ridge of high pressure to our south, VFR is expected to prevail for most locations by mid-afternoon or sooner. A developing LLJ may bring some LLWS to area TAFs tonight but the storm activity is expected to remain north of the area tonight. Winds will gradually become southeasterly and breezy this afternoon and evening. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ082-083-091>093. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWM AVIATION...MWM