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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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166 FXUS63 KICT 132320 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 620 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Small chances for showers and storms late tonight into Wednesday morning. Better chances for more meaningful precip Wednesday night into Thursday. - Hot and muggy tomorrow, with a Heat Advisory in effect for the majority of central, south central, and southeast KS. - Showers and storms possible again Friday/Saturday nights, but details uncertain at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Water vapor imagery indicates an upper ridge set up over the Southern Plains as a trough sits over the Cascade Mountain Range and continues to progress to the east. The MCS that provided localized flooding to parts of central and eastern Kansas continues to make its way to the southeast toward the Lower Mississippi Valley. TEMPERATURES... Remaining surface moisture leftover from this morning`s activity will help to support dangerous heat looking ahead to tomorrow afternoon. With surface dewpoints near 70 degrees and stronger southerly winds, heat indices upwards of 105 degrees across central, south central, and southeast Kansas. As such, a heat advisory has been issued for portions of these areas for tomorrow afternoon. Following the passage of a surface boundary Wednesday evening into Thursday, temperatures will look to return to near normal through the weekend in central and southeast KS with above average temperatures expected in southern KS. PRECIPITATION... Another round of showers and storms will be possible later tonight into Wednesday morning across the Central Plains. However, latest CAM guidance suggests primary coverage will likely lie further north and east of our forecast area. A stronger upper trough will pass through the Plains late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, providing higher chances for rain across central and south central Kansas as it brings a surface boundary through the region. At this time, it appears that strong winds will be the primary concern with the strongest storms that develop. The anticipated amplification of the upper ridge over the Southern Plains will look to keep us mainly hot and dry. Despite this, embedded upper shortwave energy may allow for a few showers and storms through the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24hrs across the region with southeast winds switching to southwest on Wednesday. Low level wind shear will affect central /south central Kansas for late tonight into early Wednesday morning. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ049- 051>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ082-083- 091>093. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...CDJ