166
FXUS63 KICT 132320
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
620 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chances for showers and storms late tonight into
  Wednesday morning. Better chances for more meaningful precip
  Wednesday night into Thursday.

- Hot and muggy tomorrow, with a Heat Advisory in effect for the
  majority of central, south central, and southeast KS.

- Showers and storms possible again Friday/Saturday nights, but
  details uncertain at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Water vapor imagery indicates an upper ridge set up over the
Southern Plains as a trough sits over the Cascade Mountain Range and
continues to progress to the east. The MCS that provided localized
flooding to parts of central and eastern Kansas continues to make
its way to the southeast toward the Lower Mississippi Valley.

TEMPERATURES... Remaining surface moisture leftover from this
morning`s activity will help to support dangerous heat looking ahead
to tomorrow afternoon. With surface dewpoints near 70 degrees and
stronger southerly winds, heat indices upwards of 105 degrees across
central, south central, and southeast Kansas. As such, a heat
advisory has been issued for portions of these areas for tomorrow
afternoon.

Following the passage of a surface boundary Wednesday evening into
Thursday, temperatures will look to return to near normal through
the weekend in central and southeast KS with above average
temperatures expected in southern KS.

PRECIPITATION... Another round of showers and storms will be
possible later tonight into Wednesday morning across the Central
Plains. However, latest CAM guidance suggests primary coverage will
likely lie further north and east of our forecast area. A stronger
upper trough will pass through the Plains late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, providing higher chances for rain across central
and south central Kansas as it brings a surface boundary through the
region. At this time, it appears that strong winds will be the
primary concern with the strongest storms that develop.

The anticipated amplification of the upper ridge over the Southern
Plains will look to keep us mainly hot and dry. Despite this,
embedded upper shortwave energy may allow for a few showers and
storms through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24hrs across the region
with southeast winds switching to southwest on Wednesday. Low
level wind shear will affect central /south central Kansas for
late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ049-
051>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ082-083-
091>093.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...CDJ