005
FXUS63 KICT 181150
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
650 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid today over portions of south-central and
  southeast Kansas.

- Scattered thunderstorm chances anytime late this morning
  through early Monday, mainly northeast of a line extending
  from Lincoln to Newton to Sedan. A few strong to severe storms
  are possible.

- Seasonably cool temperatures Monday through mid-week, with a
  return to seasonably warm weather by late week and persisting
  through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Strengthening 850-600mb warm advection and moisture transport ahead
of subtle mid-upper energy approaching from the northwest will
support isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances anytime from late
this morning through early Monday, mainly northeast of a line
extending from generally Lincoln to Newton to Sedan. Ample elevated
instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and unseasonably strong
directional shear will support a strong to severe storm threat, with
large hail and damaging winds the primary threats, along with
locally heavy rainfall. The highest chance for storms will probably
be over northeast Kansas and far eastern Kansas.

A wide range of temperatures will likely be present today across the
region, with 90s and low 100s over southern and south-central
Kansas, and 80s further north-northeast. However, if convective
outflow ends up arriving earlier and stronger than forecast, this
will support cooler temperatures areawide. Will run with the
inherited heat advisory and add Chautauqua, Montgomery and
Labette counties over portions of south-central and southeast
Kansas.

Another round of warm advection and moisture transport may support
additional shower/thunderstorm chances late Monday night through
Tuesday morning. Limited instability should preclude severe storms.

A few additional opportunities for hit-or-miss showers/storms may
impact portions of central and north-central Kansas anytime Thursday
night through the weekend, but widespread activity is not expected.
Deterministic guidance supports continued hit-or-miss storm chances
through early next week, as a cold front attempts to approach from
the north.

Temperature-wise, as unseasonably deep upper troughing carves out
over the eastern CONUS, and associated Canadian high pressure oozes
south, temperatures should lower to seasonably cool levels as we
head into early to mid week, when high temperatures should be in the
80s and overnight lows in the 60s. Deterministic and ensemble
consensus supports a return to seasonably warm temperatures as we
head into late week and next weekend, as upper ridging and
associated thickness builds eastward into Mid-America.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected over the next 16 to 18 hours, then
showers are expected to move into portions of eastern Kansas
late tonight into early Monday morning.

Currently, winds are generally light and out of the east.
However, winds should increase throughout the day, and sustained
winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots will be
possible, especially this afternoon.

Currently monitoring showers and storms across portions of
northern and central Nebraska. While these storms are moving
southeast toward eastern Kansas, this activity will likely
weaken before it moves into Kansas. However, additional
thunderstorm development is forecast across southern Nebraska
and northern Kansas and will move across portions of eastern
Kansas tonight. The best chances for storms continues to remain
along and northeast of a KSLN-KCNU line between 03Z and 10Z.
Main concerns with the strongest storms will be wind gusts over
40 knots and potentially some small hail.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ067-082-083-091>093-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JC