![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
005 FXUS63 KICT 181150 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 650 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid today over portions of south-central and southeast Kansas. - Scattered thunderstorm chances anytime late this morning through early Monday, mainly northeast of a line extending from Lincoln to Newton to Sedan. A few strong to severe storms are possible. - Seasonably cool temperatures Monday through mid-week, with a return to seasonably warm weather by late week and persisting through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Strengthening 850-600mb warm advection and moisture transport ahead of subtle mid-upper energy approaching from the northwest will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances anytime from late this morning through early Monday, mainly northeast of a line extending from generally Lincoln to Newton to Sedan. Ample elevated instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and unseasonably strong directional shear will support a strong to severe storm threat, with large hail and damaging winds the primary threats, along with locally heavy rainfall. The highest chance for storms will probably be over northeast Kansas and far eastern Kansas. A wide range of temperatures will likely be present today across the region, with 90s and low 100s over southern and south-central Kansas, and 80s further north-northeast. However, if convective outflow ends up arriving earlier and stronger than forecast, this will support cooler temperatures areawide. Will run with the inherited heat advisory and add Chautauqua, Montgomery and Labette counties over portions of south-central and southeast Kansas. Another round of warm advection and moisture transport may support additional shower/thunderstorm chances late Monday night through Tuesday morning. Limited instability should preclude severe storms. A few additional opportunities for hit-or-miss showers/storms may impact portions of central and north-central Kansas anytime Thursday night through the weekend, but widespread activity is not expected. Deterministic guidance supports continued hit-or-miss storm chances through early next week, as a cold front attempts to approach from the north. Temperature-wise, as unseasonably deep upper troughing carves out over the eastern CONUS, and associated Canadian high pressure oozes south, temperatures should lower to seasonably cool levels as we head into early to mid week, when high temperatures should be in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports a return to seasonably warm temperatures as we head into late week and next weekend, as upper ridging and associated thickness builds eastward into Mid-America. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 VFR conditions are expected over the next 16 to 18 hours, then showers are expected to move into portions of eastern Kansas late tonight into early Monday morning. Currently, winds are generally light and out of the east. However, winds should increase throughout the day, and sustained winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots will be possible, especially this afternoon. Currently monitoring showers and storms across portions of northern and central Nebraska. While these storms are moving southeast toward eastern Kansas, this activity will likely weaken before it moves into Kansas. However, additional thunderstorm development is forecast across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas and will move across portions of eastern Kansas tonight. The best chances for storms continues to remain along and northeast of a KSLN-KCNU line between 03Z and 10Z. Main concerns with the strongest storms will be wind gusts over 40 knots and potentially some small hail. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ067-082-083-091>093-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...JC