Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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265 FXUS63 KICT 141941 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 241 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms later this afternoon and evening primarily in central KS. Biggest threats appear to be quarter sized hail and 70 mph wind gusts. - Highs in the middle to upper 90s through the end of the week, with a Heat Advisory in effect in south and southeast KS. - Seasonable temperatures and opportunities for isolated showers and storms through the beginning of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Water vapor imagery indicates an upper ridge situated over the ArkLaTex region as an upper trough approaches the Central Plains from the west. At the surface, a warm front sits across the state and stretches down into Arkansas. TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY... Latest CAM guidance suggests isolated to scattered showers and storms developing in central KS after 21Z as a surface trough makes its way through the state. Instability and shear look supportive enough for quarter sized hail, but impressive DCAPE values (1200+ J/kg) will shift the primary storm threat to damaging wind gusts (70+ mph) with the strongest storms as the evening progresses. The front passing through the state this evening will be responsible for touching off scattered showers and storms later tomorrow afternoon and evening across southeast KS. This activity should exit the region after dark. Hot conditions will prevail over south central and southeast KS, with high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s. Afternoon heat indices near 105 degrees are likely in far south and southeast KS, so a Heat Advisory has been issued for those areas. FRIDAY THRU WEDNESDAY... Additional shortwave energy is progged to roll in off the High Plains later on Friday. Details are still a bit uncertain at this time, but CAPE/shear combo appears decent enough to produce a handful of severe storms. Went with somewhat low pops for now to reflect relative uncertainty with coverage. Northwest flow aloft will return through the weekend, allowing for the persistence of seasonable high temperatures in the low to middle 90s through the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the period. The biggest aviation concern continues to be chances for showers and storms later this afternoon into the evening for KRSL-KSLN-KHUT-KGBD. Current model guidance suggests storm initiation around 23Z near KRSL and eventual eastward movement throughout the early evening hours. Greatest confidence in coverage remains in central KS at this time, so with lower confidence in southward extent, will leave KICT out for now but will AMD as necessary. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ049-051>053- 067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...JWK