664
FXUS63 KICT 140830
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
330 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slow moving frontal boundary will become a focus for late afternoon
  and evening showers and thunderstorms, especially across
  central Kansas.

- Rising temperatures will allow the heat index to rise into the
  100-105 degree range this afternoon. Deep vertical mixing may
  allow dewpoint temperatures to plummet late in the day,
  especially for areas west of I-135.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

A shortwave trough over the Rockies is progged to move eastward
emerging over the Central and Northern Plains late in the day. At
the surface, low pressure will deepen along the Nebraska/Kansas
state line. Deep vertical mixing within the trough axis could
keep heat indices below advisory levels for parts of central and
south central Kansas but this would allow temperatures to climb
into the 100-103 range. Meanwhile, higher dewpoints in
southeast Kansas will allow heat indices to climb to 105+ range
and the heat advisory will remain intact.

Isolated or perhaps widely scattered storms may develop along this
frontal boundary after 21-22Z with the highest probabilities (30-
40%) across our central Kansas counties during the evening hours.
Point soundings show inverted-v profiles supporting the
potential for damaging winds with any storms that manage to
develop within the frontal zone. The better nocturnal signal
appears to remain north of our area tonight but some mid pops
were maintained through the night as the frontal boundary
advances slowly south and eastward across the area.

Another round of storms will be possible along the frontal zone on
Thursday afternoon across parts of southern Kansas/southeast Kansas.
The airmass is progged to remain weakly capped as the frontal
boundary settles southward over south central Kansas during the
afternoon hours. Widely scattered storms will be possible during
the afternoon hours. Some of this activity could linger into
the evening hours over mainly southeast Kansas but confidence in
the details remains fairly low at this time. Hot conditions
will persist in the wake of the front with highs remaining in
the 90s.

Fri...northwest mid/upper flow on the northern periphery of the
mid/upper ridge will allow another more subtle shortwave trough to
move over the area late Friday. Low pops were maintained but
confidence in the details remains fairly low. Seasonable
temperatures are anticipated with high sin the 90s.

Sat-Tue...A persistence type forecast is anticipated with only
subtle changes in the large-scale pattern. We will continue to
remain on the northwest periphery of the mid/upper ridge bringing
the potential for some showers and storms through the period.
Seasonable temperatures are anticipated through the period with
highs in the 90s and lows in the upper 60s/near 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Main aviation concerns will be some low clouds over the next few
hours, wind shear through into the morning and storm chances
starting late this afternoon.

Low clouds over northeast KS are starting to work west and will
affect KSLN at least over the next hours. At this time it
appears KSLN will be the only site affected by low clouds. Most
sites will experience some low level wind shear over the next
several hours with strong southwest winds just off of the
surface in the 40kt range. A surface trough is expected to
slide into central KS with storms expected to develop along it
by around 22-23z. The highest storm chances will be over
northeast KS so for now will just run with a prob30 starting at
22z at KSLN and continue to monitor model trends.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ049-051>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...RBL