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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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664 FXUS63 KICT 140830 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 330 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A slow moving frontal boundary will become a focus for late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, especially across central Kansas. - Rising temperatures will allow the heat index to rise into the 100-105 degree range this afternoon. Deep vertical mixing may allow dewpoint temperatures to plummet late in the day, especially for areas west of I-135. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 A shortwave trough over the Rockies is progged to move eastward emerging over the Central and Northern Plains late in the day. At the surface, low pressure will deepen along the Nebraska/Kansas state line. Deep vertical mixing within the trough axis could keep heat indices below advisory levels for parts of central and south central Kansas but this would allow temperatures to climb into the 100-103 range. Meanwhile, higher dewpoints in southeast Kansas will allow heat indices to climb to 105+ range and the heat advisory will remain intact. Isolated or perhaps widely scattered storms may develop along this frontal boundary after 21-22Z with the highest probabilities (30- 40%) across our central Kansas counties during the evening hours. Point soundings show inverted-v profiles supporting the potential for damaging winds with any storms that manage to develop within the frontal zone. The better nocturnal signal appears to remain north of our area tonight but some mid pops were maintained through the night as the frontal boundary advances slowly south and eastward across the area. Another round of storms will be possible along the frontal zone on Thursday afternoon across parts of southern Kansas/southeast Kansas. The airmass is progged to remain weakly capped as the frontal boundary settles southward over south central Kansas during the afternoon hours. Widely scattered storms will be possible during the afternoon hours. Some of this activity could linger into the evening hours over mainly southeast Kansas but confidence in the details remains fairly low at this time. Hot conditions will persist in the wake of the front with highs remaining in the 90s. Fri...northwest mid/upper flow on the northern periphery of the mid/upper ridge will allow another more subtle shortwave trough to move over the area late Friday. Low pops were maintained but confidence in the details remains fairly low. Seasonable temperatures are anticipated with high sin the 90s. Sat-Tue...A persistence type forecast is anticipated with only subtle changes in the large-scale pattern. We will continue to remain on the northwest periphery of the mid/upper ridge bringing the potential for some showers and storms through the period. Seasonable temperatures are anticipated through the period with highs in the 90s and lows in the upper 60s/near 70. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1253 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Main aviation concerns will be some low clouds over the next few hours, wind shear through into the morning and storm chances starting late this afternoon. Low clouds over northeast KS are starting to work west and will affect KSLN at least over the next hours. At this time it appears KSLN will be the only site affected by low clouds. Most sites will experience some low level wind shear over the next several hours with strong southwest winds just off of the surface in the 40kt range. A surface trough is expected to slide into central KS with storms expected to develop along it by around 22-23z. The highest storm chances will be over northeast KS so for now will just run with a prob30 starting at 22z at KSLN and continue to monitor model trends. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ049-051>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWM AVIATION...RBL