265
FXUS63 KICT 141941
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
241 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms later this afternoon and evening primarily in central
  KS. Biggest threats appear to be quarter sized hail and 70 mph
  wind gusts.

- Highs in the middle to upper 90s through the end of the week,
  with a Heat Advisory in effect in south and southeast KS.

- Seasonable temperatures and opportunities for isolated showers
  and storms through the beginning of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Water vapor imagery indicates an upper ridge situated over the
ArkLaTex region as an upper trough approaches the Central Plains
from the west. At the surface, a warm front sits across the state
and stretches down into Arkansas.

TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY... Latest CAM guidance suggests isolated to
scattered showers and storms developing in central KS after 21Z as a
surface trough makes its way through the state. Instability and
shear look supportive enough for quarter sized hail, but impressive
DCAPE values (1200+ J/kg) will shift the primary storm threat to
damaging wind gusts (70+ mph) with the strongest storms as the
evening progresses.

The front passing through the state this evening will be responsible
for touching off scattered showers and storms later tomorrow
afternoon and evening across southeast KS. This activity should exit
the region after dark. Hot conditions will prevail over south
central and southeast KS, with high temperatures in the middle to
upper 90s. Afternoon heat indices near 105 degrees are likely in far
south and southeast KS, so a Heat Advisory has been issued for those
areas.

FRIDAY THRU WEDNESDAY... Additional shortwave energy is progged to
roll in off the High Plains later on Friday. Details are still a bit
uncertain at this time, but CAPE/shear combo appears decent enough
to produce a handful of severe storms. Went with somewhat low pops
for now to reflect relative uncertainty with coverage.

Northwest flow aloft will return through the weekend, allowing for
the persistence of seasonable high temperatures in the low to middle
90s through the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the
period. The biggest aviation concern continues to be chances for
showers and storms later this afternoon into the evening for
KRSL-KSLN-KHUT-KGBD. Current model guidance suggests storm
initiation around 23Z near KRSL and eventual eastward movement
throughout the early evening hours. Greatest confidence in
coverage remains in central KS at this time, so with lower
confidence in southward extent, will leave KICT out for now but
will AMD as necessary.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...JWK