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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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140 FXUS63 KICT 161141 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 641 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorm potential later today-tonight. - Triple digit heat indices southern Kansas through Saturday. - Slightly cooler late weekend through mid to late next week. - Additional periodic nighttime through morning thunderstorm chances Saturday night through Tuesday or Wednesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Strengthening 800-600mb warm advection in response to low-amplitude shortwave energy approaching from the west will support isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms this morning over mainly the northwest quarter of Kansas, including central and north- central Kansas. Instability rooted above the boundary layer will be limited, so severe weather is not expected, although strong deep layer directional shear may support pea-dime size hail with the strongest activity. Thunderstorm chances/coverage are uncertain for later this afternoon, this evening, and tonight. There are a few scenarios that could play out: Scenario 1...Isolated to scattered elevated showers/storms during the afternoon gradually expand in coverage during the evening as the low-level jet strengthens, with this numerous activity possibly persisting well into the night within a zone of persistent warm advection and moisture transport. Scenario 2...A few isolated surface-based storms develop over western to central Kansas late this afternoon or early evening, within a zone of low-level confluence, near the instability axis oriented northwest to southeast. This activity would likely tend to congeal and grow upscale into one or more thunderstorm complexes as it dives southeast along the north-northeast fringe of the instability axis. Scenario 3...A mix of both scenarios mentioned above, which is the favored forecast outcome. While available instability will not be overly exciting (no more than 1500-2000 J/kg), impressive deep layer directional shear will support the potential for severe thunderstorms. Supercells are possible initially, capable of large to very large hail, with strong downdraft CAPE values likely supporting a gradual transition to a southeastward advancing squall line and associated transition to damaging winds this evening. Could also be looking at pockets of very heavy rainfall and localized flooding, especially if additional storms redevelop overnight within a zone of persistent warm advection, and train southeastward over the same areas, mainly over eastern Kansas. Additional opportunities for periodic scattered showers/thunderstorms will exist mainly during the nighttime through morning hours late Saturday night through early Tuesday or Wednesday, as the region remains within a favorable storm track northeast of a stout southern CONUS upper ridge. Persistent modest to strong directional deep layer shear amidst seasonable elevated instability may support continued chances for strong to severe storms. As unseasonably deep upper troughing carves out over the eastern CONUS, and associated Canadian high pressure oozes south, temperatures should gradually lower to seasonably cool levels as we head into late weekend through early to mid week, when high temperatures should be in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. The latest deterministic guidance is actually now holding onto this seasonably cool weather through at least late next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 VFR conditions are ongoing across the area; however, thunderstorms are expected to develop late this morning or early this afternoon across portions of northwest and central Kansas. These storms are expected to be strong to severe with golf ball sized hail and 50 to 60-knot wind gusts possible with the strongest activity. Storms will quickly progress south and east this afternoon and evening across southern and southeastern Kansas before departing into Oklahoma and Missouri tonight. Lingering showers may be possible early Saturday morning. Exact timing and coverage still remains somewhat uncertain, so amendments to the TAFs may be necessary over the next few hours. By early Saturday morning, much of the area should return to VFR conditions. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...JC