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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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833 FXUS63 KICT 162326 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 626 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening - Hot and humid Saturday with heat indices in the 105F range along the OK State Line - Next chance for rain will Sunday night and into Monday morning && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A weak frontal system is currently draped across Central Kansas this afternoon. An area of convection is already moving off the high plains and approaching the Smokey Hills. Some of this activity is severe and is expected to continue through the afternoon. Low level is shear is rather good with hodographs having a good "fish hook" look to them. 925mb-850mb moisture is rather good in Southwest through South Central Kansas this afternoon. This is likely to be the main area where thunderstorms will develop. CAPE vales are in the 1700-2000 J/Kg range and lapse rates are in the 5C-7C/1000ft range. While this is decent, it is not great so it will not inhibit thunderstorm activity but is will not really help it either. All this said, severe thunderstorms are expected as the low level shear and moisture thickness values can`t be ignored. 300mb jet stream winds are in the 55kt-70kt range which is better than yesterday and will help hail development. At this time, could see hail up to 2 1/2 inches and winds up to 75 mph with the strongest storms. South Central Kansas also appears to have the best chances for the severe weather during the mid to late afternoon. Saturday will have little to no chance for rain as ridging and subsidence builds into the region. Winds will be light and out of the east and southeast. Tds look to remain in the low 70s across the region and air temperatures in the 90s. Areas along the Oklahoma State line are likely to be in the upper 90s. Given the high air temperatures and Tds in the 70s, heat indices are likely to be in the 103F to 108F range. As such, a heat advisory was issued for the Southern tier of counties for Saturday afternoon. Sunday and into Monday, a frontal system will be pushing through the region. Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible over much of the region. Timing and intensity of this activity is in doubt but most of the ensembles at this time are pushing the main axis of activity to the west of the region. This will bring the temperatures down Monday and will likely keep temperatures just a shade below normal for this time of year through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Scattered strong to severe storms will continue to affect parts of the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas early this evening. Otherwise, east to northeast winds will prevail across the area tonight with VFR conditions thru the period away from any convection. KED && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ082-083- 091>093-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...ELM AVIATION...KED