429
FXUS63 KICT 160801
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
301 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorm potential later today-tonight.

- Triple digit heat indices southern Kansas through Saturday.

- Slightly cooler late weekend through mid to late next week.

- Additional periodic nighttime through morning thunderstorm
  chances Saturday night through Tuesday or Wednesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Strengthening 800-600mb warm advection in response to low-amplitude
shortwave energy approaching from the west will support isolated to
scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms this morning over
mainly the northwest quarter of Kansas, including central and north-
central Kansas. Instability rooted above the boundary layer will be
limited, so severe weather is not expected, although strong deep
layer directional shear may support pea-dime size hail with the
strongest activity.

Thunderstorm chances/coverage are uncertain for later this
afternoon, this evening, and tonight. There are a few scenarios that
could play out:

Scenario 1...Isolated to scattered elevated showers/storms during
the afternoon gradually expand in coverage during the evening as the
low-level jet strengthens, with this numerous activity possibly
persisting well into the night within a zone of persistent warm
advection and moisture transport.

Scenario 2...A few isolated surface-based storms develop over
western to central Kansas late this afternoon or early evening,
within a zone of low-level confluence, near the instability axis
oriented northwest to southeast. This activity would likely tend to
congeal and grow upscale into one or more thunderstorm complexes as
it dives southeast along the north-northeast fringe of the
instability axis.

Scenario 3...A mix of both scenarios mentioned above, which is the
favored forecast outcome.

While available instability will not be overly exciting (no more
than 1500-2000 J/kg), impressive deep layer directional shear will
support the potential for severe thunderstorms. Supercells are
possible initially, capable of large to very large hail, with strong
downdraft CAPE values likely supporting a gradual transition to a
southeastward advancing squall line and associated transition to
damaging winds this evening. Could also be looking at pockets of
very heavy rainfall and localized flooding, especially if additional
storms redevelop overnight within a zone of persistent warm
advection, and train southeastward over the same areas, mainly over
eastern Kansas.

Additional opportunities for periodic scattered
showers/thunderstorms will exist mainly during the nighttime
through morning hours late Saturday night through early Tuesday
or Wednesday, as the region remains within a favorable storm
track northeast of a stout southern CONUS upper ridge.
Persistent modest to strong directional deep layer shear amidst
seasonable elevated instability may support continued chances
for strong to severe storms.

As unseasonably deep upper troughing carves out over the eastern
CONUS, and associated Canadian high pressure oozes south,
temperatures should gradually lower to seasonably cool levels as we
head into late weekend through early to mid week, when high
temperatures should be in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. The
latest deterministic guidance is actually now holding onto this
seasonably cool weather through at least late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected through at least 17Z today.

By midday today, the chances for strong to severe storms will
begin to increase, especially across portions of central Kansas
during the early afternoon hours. Storms are expected to
progress southeast through the afternoon and early evening hours
before departing into Oklahoma and southwest Missouri tonight.
Large hail and and wind gusts up to 50 knots will be the main
concerns with the strongest activity. Storm chances will come to
an end across portions of southern and southeast Kansas by the
end of the TAF period.

Outside of any thunderstorm activity, surface winds are expected
to remain fairly light and out of the east or southeast through
the TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JC