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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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429 FXUS63 KICT 160801 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 301 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorm potential later today-tonight. - Triple digit heat indices southern Kansas through Saturday. - Slightly cooler late weekend through mid to late next week. - Additional periodic nighttime through morning thunderstorm chances Saturday night through Tuesday or Wednesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Strengthening 800-600mb warm advection in response to low-amplitude shortwave energy approaching from the west will support isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms this morning over mainly the northwest quarter of Kansas, including central and north- central Kansas. Instability rooted above the boundary layer will be limited, so severe weather is not expected, although strong deep layer directional shear may support pea-dime size hail with the strongest activity. Thunderstorm chances/coverage are uncertain for later this afternoon, this evening, and tonight. There are a few scenarios that could play out: Scenario 1...Isolated to scattered elevated showers/storms during the afternoon gradually expand in coverage during the evening as the low-level jet strengthens, with this numerous activity possibly persisting well into the night within a zone of persistent warm advection and moisture transport. Scenario 2...A few isolated surface-based storms develop over western to central Kansas late this afternoon or early evening, within a zone of low-level confluence, near the instability axis oriented northwest to southeast. This activity would likely tend to congeal and grow upscale into one or more thunderstorm complexes as it dives southeast along the north-northeast fringe of the instability axis. Scenario 3...A mix of both scenarios mentioned above, which is the favored forecast outcome. While available instability will not be overly exciting (no more than 1500-2000 J/kg), impressive deep layer directional shear will support the potential for severe thunderstorms. Supercells are possible initially, capable of large to very large hail, with strong downdraft CAPE values likely supporting a gradual transition to a southeastward advancing squall line and associated transition to damaging winds this evening. Could also be looking at pockets of very heavy rainfall and localized flooding, especially if additional storms redevelop overnight within a zone of persistent warm advection, and train southeastward over the same areas, mainly over eastern Kansas. Additional opportunities for periodic scattered showers/thunderstorms will exist mainly during the nighttime through morning hours late Saturday night through early Tuesday or Wednesday, as the region remains within a favorable storm track northeast of a stout southern CONUS upper ridge. Persistent modest to strong directional deep layer shear amidst seasonable elevated instability may support continued chances for strong to severe storms. As unseasonably deep upper troughing carves out over the eastern CONUS, and associated Canadian high pressure oozes south, temperatures should gradually lower to seasonably cool levels as we head into late weekend through early to mid week, when high temperatures should be in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. The latest deterministic guidance is actually now holding onto this seasonably cool weather through at least late next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected through at least 17Z today. By midday today, the chances for strong to severe storms will begin to increase, especially across portions of central Kansas during the early afternoon hours. Storms are expected to progress southeast through the afternoon and early evening hours before departing into Oklahoma and southwest Missouri tonight. Large hail and and wind gusts up to 50 knots will be the main concerns with the strongest activity. Storm chances will come to an end across portions of southern and southeast Kansas by the end of the TAF period. Outside of any thunderstorm activity, surface winds are expected to remain fairly light and out of the east or southeast through the TAF period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...JC